Pooling resources to encourage innovation

Pooling resources to encourage innovation

25 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

In terms of Hong Kong investors , IPO , of course as bigger as possible, because the opportunities for small investors in the ballot is relatively larger, and also many big ibank to support the stock price, the opportunities for small investors to make money in the ballot should more large. However, this culture of IPO bigger the better , in fact, it is expense of the healthy development of SMEs . For SMEs, the traditional IPO market continues to be driven out of the phenomenon , the United States believes that it will soon be launching a new corporate financing.

Twenty years ago, the New York-listed IPO funds are about scale of 5 million to $ 10 million, it were quite common. However, since the introduction of electronic trading stocks , the blind pursuit of stockbrokers started trading volume , the market 's attention has only concentrated on large IPO activity , so that smaller IPO relatively isolated , the result is a whole number of IPO shrinking . Each year about 500 from the previous IPO, reduced to the current annual average of only about 130 ; For IPO funds raised $ 50 million less than the ratio of the number from the previous accounted for 80% of IPO , now shrunk to only 20% . This IPO unhealthy , to drive away a lot of the development of small and medium enterprises who need capital ; additional, bank was doing too meager profits and they simply do not want to SME financing business. Some experts estimate that the current U.S. annual average of only about 30 tiny IPO.

The SEC is planning to allow SMEs to public placement, the insider called it as Crowdfunding, and it is relaxed regulatory requirements than traditional IPO : Financing companies must register via the online platform of Offer Shares, and the annual fund-raising maximum aggregate $ 1M ; it also limited the amount of each annual investment level , while corporate executives must be declared with the financial situation ; non-professional investors, although you can subscribe for shares, but the share is entitled to all investors year lock-up period .

Such Crowdfunding financing market , although convenient SME financing, but administrative costs ( such as processing document disclosure , hiring online trading platform , annual reports , etc. ) pressure which relative to the size of funds raised, it is very large in terms of the ratio, and it may scare of many companies . Moreover, the average investor is concerned , Crowdfunding may have little protection : first, because of the low liquidity of these shares , small investors easy to retreat into difficult to sell shares to cash, therefore , it must be psychologically prepared small investors such shares may take a long hold ; on the other hand, it is needed to worry about market manipulation behavior, because the scale of capital and enterprise funds raised are smaller, low liquidity of the Shares , the stock likely to be brandished from large dealer to make shares price up and down.

Crowdfunding emerges let the U.S. Administration's intention seems to outside the traditional stock market, specifically for SMEs to establish another set of stock market trading of the Shares , the situation with the Hong Kong GEM concept quite alike . Such financing platform can at least encourage SMEs more innovative developments on the real economic recovery and job creation plays a major role, it is worthy of praise .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7224-2013-10-25-09-47-35

對香港股民來講，IPO 當然愈大愈好，因為從小投資者中籤機會相對較大，大行護盤更落力，中籤者賺錢機會自然大好多。不過，這種 IPO 愈大愈好的風氣，其實犧牲了中小企的良性發展。針對中小企持續被趕出傳統 IPO 市場的現象，美國相信不久將會推出一種全新的企業融資方式。

二十年前，在紐約上市的IPO集資金額，規模 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元者相當普遍。不過，自從美股引入電子化交易後，股票經紀開始盲目追求交投量，市場的注意力亦只集中在大型 IPO 活動上，令較小型的 IPO 備受冷落，結果是整體 IPO 數量不斷萎縮。由以前每年約有 500 宗 IPO，減少至目前每年平均只有約 130 宗；至於 IPO 集資額少於 5,000 萬美元的比例，則由以前佔全年 IPO 數目的 80%，萎縮至目前只佔 20%。這種 IPO 歪風，趕絕了許多需要資金發展的中小型企業；加上銀行嫌利潤微薄，根本不想做中小企融資生意。有專家估計，目前美國每年平均只有約 30 宗蚊型 IPO。

美國證交會正計劃容許中小企公開配股集資，行內稱作 Crowdfunding（譯：集液成裘式融資），且監管要求較傳統 IPO 寬鬆：集資企業必須透過註冊的網上平台發售股份，每年集資總額上限 100 萬美元；又限制每名高層每年投資金額，而企業與高層必須申報財務狀況；非專業投資者雖然也可以認購股份，但所有投資者的股份皆有一年禁售期限制。

這類 Crowdfunding 融資市場，雖然方便中小企融資，但行政費用（例如處理文件披露、聘用網上交易平台、年報等）的負擔，相對於集資金額的規模來講，比例顯得很大，可能會嚇怕不少企業。 況且，對一般投資者來講，Crowdfunding 可能無甚保障：一方面由於這類股份的流通性低，小投資者易進難退，賣股套現並不容易，因此，小投資者要有心理準備，這類股份可能需要長時間持有；另一方面亦需要擔心造市行為，因為集資金額與企業資本規模都較細，股份流通性低，股價容易被大戶或莊家舞弄股低。

Crowdfunding 的出現，似乎反映美國當局有意在傳統股票市場之外，另外成立一個專為中小企股份買賣而設的股市，情況跟香港的創業板理念頗相象。這種融資平台至少可以鼓勵中小企更勇於創新發展，對實體經濟復蘇、創造就業起著重大作用，值得推崇。



王冠一

Postponed delisting attains perfection

Postponed delisting attains perfection

21 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

U.S. Democrats would rather let " White House lights out " ( the federal government suspended ) ,to refuse medical reform bill (Obamacare) issues retracted, the political toppled Republicans and also inadvertently harm the national economy for the Fed to create conditions for delisting justifiably postponed .

Remember Bernanke raised on four criteria for delisting : job market improves , see the momentum of economic recovery , inflation is back to normal , the federal government fiscal problem is solved. Today, even the White House from " lights out " becomes " lights " debt ceiling deadline until early February next year , but in fact that it has not yet met the requirements of the fourth criterion . Furthermore, during the outage of the federal government, a lot of economic data failed to timely payment, it is seriously disrupting the Fed's assessment of the work of the first three criteria . Thus, by the end of October, the Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting on interest rates , Bernanke should be common sense to the grounds of insufficient data , the delisting issue will be postponed to mid-December meeting to discuss .

The "Delisting", in fact, that is, the Fed printing money to reduce monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and MBS ( mortgage-backed notes ) , there are generally considered the consequences of bond interest and mortgage rates could rise sharply .

Recent U.S. interest rates rise , in addition to stir-fried Fed delisting because the concept and, more importantly, financial disputes within the U.S. Congress , has shaken the confidence of many investors in U.S. debt . However, since October 1 " White Lights " starts , investors are basically just focus on selling one month to three -month Treasury bills (T-Bill), as government bonds (T-Bond) market has not seen too much panic , reflecting investors believe that even if the federal government technical default , the time will certainly be quite short , and the investors do not worry about damage of the T-Bond value. U.S. bond market this uncharacteristically, bond yields are generally not as rapidly rising as expected , in fact,  it reflected from  investors that, outside of the U.S. debt , there is no other similar assets to choose from.

Therefore, the U.S. government declared the provisional government budget through postponed after the debt ceiling , then by the ten-year Treasury yield fell to 2.75% 2.55% anxious , as those uncertain factors are temporary disappearance, U.S. dollar assets ( especially the U.S. debt ) is still a large number of customers to join in droves. U.S. Dollar Index reflects the recent trend that investors has convinced that Fed defer delisting until next year and Yellen fastest successor Fed chairman before the official launch .

I have been concerned about, Bernanke has repeatedly reiterated that the Fed will start delisting before the end of this year. Because if he fulfill its commitments , it has only 2 times of meeting on interest rates to choice to announce the delisting (Oct and Dec). It is worth pondering that, if the U.S. debt short-term bond yields continued to drop , so that the internal Fed believes that the private market has sufficient appetite for supporting the U.S. debt , there is no guarantee in December 's meeting on interest rates will be " accidentally " start delisting, small scale purchase of U.S. debt reduction , as Bernanke giving for Obama a last  gift .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/2012-06-14-19-49-09/7204-2013-10-20-10-28-45

押後退市 功德圓滿

美國民主黨寧願讓「白宮熄燈」（聯邦政府暫停運作），亦拒絕就醫改法案 (Obamacare) 議題上退讓半步，一方面在政治上漂亮地扳倒共和黨，另一方面不經意的損害國家經濟，為聯儲局名正言順順延退市創造條件。

記得伯南克就退市提出了四大準則：就業市場好轉、經濟復蘇見動力、通脹回復正常、聯邦政府財政問題解決。如今即使白宮由「熄燈」變「開燈」，債務上限死線延至明年 2 月初，但其實仍未滿足第四項準則的要求。再者，由於聯邦政府停運期間，大量經濟數據未能準時發放，嚴重擾亂了聯儲局評估首三項準則的工作。因此，10 月底聯邦公開市場委員會的議息會議，按常理伯南克應該會以數據不足為由，把退市的問題再順延至 12 月中會議再討論。

所謂退市，其實即是聯儲局每月減少印銀紙購買美國國債與 MBS（按揭抵押票據），後果一般認為是債息與按息可能急劇回升。

近期美國息口上升，除了因為熱炒儲局退市概念之外，更重要的是美國國會內部的財政爭拗，已經動搖了不少美債投資者的信心。不過，自從 10 月 1 日「白宮熄燈」開始，投資者基本上只是集中拋售 1 個月至 3 個月期的國庫票據 (T-Bill)，至於國債 (T-Bond) 市場始終未見太大恐慌，反映投資者相信，即使聯邦政府出現技術性違約，時間肯定會相當短暫，並不擔心會損害到 T-Bond 的價值。美債市場今次一反常態，債息未有如一般人所預期般急升，其實從側面反映出，投資者除了美債以外，根本沒有其他類似的資產可供選擇。

因此在美國政府宣告通過順延臨時政府預算與債務上限後，十年期國債孳息隨即由 2.75% 急回落至 2.55%，顯示即使不確定因素只是暫時消失，美元資產（尤其是美債）仍有大量捧場客蜂擁而至。美匯指數近日的走勢反映，投資者對聯儲局押後退市已深信不疑，甚至認為最快要到明年耶倫接棒聯儲局主席一職之後才正式啟動。

筆者一直在意，伯南克三番四次重申，聯儲局會在今年年底之前啟動退市的言論。因為他要是履行承諾，就只剩下本月及 12 月兩次議息會議選擇。而值得深思的是，假如美債債息短期內持續回落，令聯儲局內部相信，私人市場已具備足夠胃納支撐美債，難保 12 月的議息會議會「意外地」啟動退市，小規模減少購買美債，作為伯南克臨別前為奧巴馬抬的最後一頂轎。



王冠一

US Financial difficulties too hard to solve

US Financial difficulties too hard to solve

18 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

U.S. fiscal predicament finally have a breakthrough in the dead line before Congress temporarily approved budget, as the debt ceiling extension, the three major U.S. stock indices have stimulated last Wednesday more than 1% , the U.S. Dollar index return to 80.79 levels . However, the rally failed to extend trading hours in Asia , seems to be implied.

House and Senate passed the bill in its budget , Congress approved 986 Billion U.S. dollars emergency to January-15 of 2014 , meanwhile, temporarily raise the debt ceiling until February 7 and continue to discuss again. This is only temporarily kick the can down the road and  extend frontline of war without nothing!

U.S. government partially closed in the past two weeks , the fourth quarter GDP estimates thus reducing the 0.3 % and there was $ 12 billion evaporated .During this period the federal government had to reduce public spending by 20 billion dollars. Interest rates rise due to short-term debt, those corporate finance costs increased, it caused to reduce their investment and results recruitment inevitable. In Property market ,the government departments have failed to approve mortgage applications , in addition to reducing the mortgage loan application ,but also the joint confidence builders have reduced from builders sentiment fell by the September 57 to October 55 , those can be seen. The proportion of GDP 70% about spending, since civil servants unpaid work stoppage is being undermined.

The U.S. government temporarily restart, it seems sky and clouds are cleared really do ? Although the United States to obtain short-term breathing space , but you can not ignore this defeat Republican , House 87 Republican defections , no major cut welfare spending to stop health care reform fails, there is no guarantee the next time backs against the wall , or reoccurrence of U.S. fiscal difficulties . As long as the unresolved differences between the two parties , the government can longer be lights out early next year . Private sectors ( businesses and consumers ) had decreased investment , recruitment, spending. Corporate earnings will be damaged , the uncertain economic outlook .

Moreover, America's core problem is solved yet ?

How Debt Relief ? No solution ! How over $ 16 trillion national debt reduction ?

Job creation ? No program ! Up to 11.3 M people currently unemployed , one third of them unemployed for more than 6 months. How to create more jobs ?

Worse, the mandatory deficit reduction plan to be implemented ! U.S. government must reduce spending ( scale up to $ 21 billion ) . The Congressional Budget Office estimates , forced segmented cutting red (Sequestration) let job market to be reduced by 80 million jobs next year , worse and worse.

Since the prospects are so uncertain , the Fed will have an excuse to delay delisting. Market expected the Fed may have to wait before considering delisting Chairman Janet Yellen , when the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $ 4.2 trillion . Liabilities is so large, it makes greater confidence in the dollar crisis , it may attract more capital into high-interest assets may (High-Yield Assets), resulting in U.S. debt heavy selling pressure , it will outweigh the benefits. Delay delisting , would equate Bernanke renege ? Fed prestige lie ?

In the current situation, Bernanke's more likely to withdraw small amount from the market at the end of this year,so that long-term U.S. dollar index should strengthen. So, at the end of Wall Street investors should carefully precarious : Please hold the handrail .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7201-2013-10-17-17-29-45

財政困局 欲斷難斷

美國財政困局終於在死線前有突破，國會暫時批准財政預算、債務上限延期，刺激周三美股三大指數都升逾 1%，美匯重返 80.79 水平。不過，升勢未能於亞洲交易時段延續，似乎有所暗示。

參眾兩院通過的議案中，財政預算方面，國會批准 9,860 億美元應急至 1 月 15 日，同時，暫時提高債務上限，延至 2 月 7 日再談。這不過是把皮球暫時踢開 (Kick the can down the road)，延長戰線罷了！

美國政府於過去兩星期局部關閉，估計第四季 GDP 因而減少了 0.3 個百分點，蒸發了 120 億美元。這段期間聯邦政府公共開支減少了 200 億美元。因短債息升，企業融資成本增加，縮減投資、招聘在所難免。樓市方面，政府部門未能審批按揭申請，除按揭貸款申請減少外，連帶建築商信心都降低了，從建築商情緒由 9 月的 57 降至 10 月的 55，可見一斑。而佔 GDP 近七成比重的消費一環，亦因公務員無薪停工而被削弱。

美國政府暫時重啟，真的是撥開雲霧見青天嗎？美國雖然獲得短期喘息空間，但不能忽略共和黨今次慘敗，眾議院 87 名共和黨人倒戈、福利開支無大削、阻止醫改失敗，難保下回背水一戰，美國財政或再陷困。只要兩黨分歧未解決，政府明年初都可能再熄燈。私人環節（企業及消費者）只好少投資、招聘、消費。企業盈利必受損，經濟前景不明朗。

再者，美國的核心問題解決了嗎？

如何減債？無解決！逾 16 萬億美元國債怎減？

創造就業？無方案！目前失業人數高達 1,130 萬人，當中三分之一失業時間超過 6 個月。如何增加就業職位？

更糟的是，強制削赤計劃即將實施！美國政府必須減少開支（規模達 210 億美元）。國會預算辦公室估計，強制分段削赤 (Sequestration) 將使明年就業市場減少 80 萬個職位，雪上加霜。

既然前景如此不明朗，聯儲局便有藉口延遲退市。市場料聯儲局可能要待耶倫任主席後才考慮退市，那時聯儲局資產負債表已膨脹到 4.2 萬億美元。負債這麼大，美元信心危機更大，可能吸引更多資金可能走入高息資產 (High-Yield Assets)，造成美債沽壓沉重，得不償失。延遲退市，豈不等同伯南克食言？儲局威信何在？

以目前情況來看，伯南克堅持年末小額退市的可能性更大，美匯長遠應走強。所以，美股投資者應小心年末風雨飄搖：請緊握扶手。



王冠一

Privacy profit, gray area

Privacy profit, gray area

15 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Dot com companies involved in the advertising industry and then offer new initiatives . I still remember that half a year ago , the famous photo-sharing app Instagram suddenly modify user privacy protocol to the company in the future and even the right to user's photo phase portrait, as an advertising photo sold to make money, the arrangement immediately aroused great resentment users that Instagram flagrant violation of the copyright , and user indignant results Instagram concessions recover those sell programs.

This use of customer information advertising revenue business model has become increasingly common in the dot com industry , recently, even Google has started to encroach that. Google intends to use its Google Plus, YouTube and other platforms to identify more advertising opportunities , the specific approach is: If a user on Google's platform , for certain goods or services proposed evaluation (Ratings) as well as comment (Comments), when the related goods or services in Google paid advertising , then the proposed evaluations or reviews of the user on Google Plus account link all the other friends , they will receive relevant ads. , and even wrote a review of the user's personal photos, it may also appear in the ad being to enhance intimacy and persuasive advertising . The arrangement will come into effect on November 11 .

For example say , if someone in Google Plus Blog on Samsung Galaxy Gear with positive comments, when Samsung Google advertisement about the product , those persons in Google Plus friends , will also be received a evaluation of the person portrait product advertising and even individuals .

This arrangement makes a lot of people find objectionable , because it is making a goods or services for no reason to do endorsements, but Google or advertisers does not offer any reimbursement (Consideration). Google has recently started asking Google Plus users authorize the arrangements. But this authorization, in fact, is not appropriate , unless future Google promised to use users' personal information for advertising purposes before they get the user to confirm the approval, and also sharing arrangement , otherwise, the user should not be free to grant Google the right to use of personal data .

In fact, in addition to Instagram and Google , Facebook also tried to launched similar advertising model earlier ( known as Sponsored Stories): Facebook was using the user information for an ads. click " Like " number , as the assessment of how much to charge advertisers standards, but the user did not choose this arrangement right . Results that all against users in a class action in favor and Facebook needs U.S. $ 20 million compensation .

Internet users who is sharing information and personal opinion, they should be careful that their information are not to be easily for dot com companies to use their personal information to make money.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7159-2013-10-03-01-07-18

科網公司涉足廣告業再獻新猷。猶記得大半年前，著名照片分享應用程式 Instagram 突然修改用戶私隱協議，以便公司日後有權把用戶的照片甚至相中肖像，作為廣告照片出售賺錢，有關安排立即惹來用戶極大反感，認為 Instagram 公然侵犯版權，最終因為群情洶湧，結果 Instagram 讓步，收回賣相計劃。

這種利用客戶資訊來找廣告收入的經營模式，在科網界愈來愈普遍，最近連 Google 亦開始染指。Google 打算利用旗下 Google Plus、YouTube 等平台物色更多廣告機會，具體做法是：假如有用戶在 Google 的平台，對某些商品或服務提出評價 (Ratings) 以至評語 (Comments)，當相關商品或服務在 Google 付費登廣告時，那麼提出過評價或評語的用戶，他們在 Google Plus 帳戶連結下的所有其他好友，將會全部收到相關廣告，甚至連寫過評語的用戶個人照片，也可能出現在廣告之中，以加強廣告的親切感與說服力。有關安排，將會自 11 月 11 日起生效。

舉例講，假如某人在 Google Plus 網誌上，正面評價過三星 Galaxy Gear 該款產品，日後當三星在 Google 登有關於該產品的廣告時，該人士在 Google Plus 的好友，就會全部收到有該人評價甚至個人肖像的產品廣告。

這種安排令不少人覺得反感，因為無緣無故為某商品或服務做了代言，但 Google 或廣告商竟然對當時人完全沒有提供任何償付 (Consideration)。Google 近日已開始要求 Google Plus 用戶，授權有關安排。但這種要求其實並不恰當，除非日後 Google 承諾日後使用用戶個人資訊作廣告用途之前，每次都先得到用戶確認批准，而且有分帳安排，否則用戶不應隨意授權 Google 使用個人資料的權利。

事實上，除了 Instagram 與 Google 之外，早前 Facebook 也試過推行類似的廣告模式（稱為 Sponsored Stories）：Facebook利用用戶對某廣告資訊按「Like」的數量，作為對廣告商收費多少的評估準則，但用戶對此安排完全沒有選擇的權利。結果反對的用戶在集體訴訟中勝訴，最終 Facebook 需要賠償 2,000 萬美元。

互聯網使用者在網上分享資訊與個人意見時，宜小心別輕易被科網公司利用個人資訊來賺錢。



王冠一

Hoarding abnormal sugar market

Hoarding abnormal sugar market

03 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一財經頻道 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

International sugar prices fell for two years , even the U.S. Department of Agriculture has to use public money to subsidize sugar farmers market to avoid sugar farmers bankrupt. Recently  there is a change on the sugar price,  ICE sugar prices has been quietly rose nearly 8 %, from about 17 cents per pound to 18 cents per pound or more since passed month.

International raw sugar prices rebound, it is partly because of the world's largest supplier action of raw sugar farmers in Brazil, they through that the sugar price is too low, and they have increased supply of raw sugar for the ethanol industry to make reduced supply of raw sugar to support the sugar price; coupled with bad weather earlier in Brazil , it also affected the yield. Moreover, there is a large agricultural traders suspected of hoarding . Currently four global agricultural dealers , Cargill and Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market have individually action , they  seems that sugar has promising sign.

In May, Cargill decided to extracted 1.43 million tons of raw sugar maturity from ICE ( Intercontinental Exchange ); while recently Louis Dreyfus also plans to extracted raw sugar 1.49 million tons from ICE. If Louis Dreyfus ultimately successful delivery, this will be the largest physical extraction of raw sugar case in passed  24 years.

In fact , buyer in the agricultural futures markets requesting to extract a large number of goods is not common, because it is easy to suspect to accusations of manipulation of the market price. e.g,  hedge fund Armajaro 2010 extracted 240,000 tons of cocoa from LIFFE exchange, the scale is equivalent to 7% of the world 's cocoa supply , Armajaro obvious motive is sharp . The following year Louis Dreyfus also extract almost all of the ICE stretch cotton maturity , it made Chinese mainland's cotton supply and demand tensions. Therefore, the Board of Trade has the upper limit to set up delivery in order to prevent people from hoarding by extracting a large number of goods to manipulate the market price now.

Recent years, Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market has been playing only a seller role, but this time they are large lots goods potential buyers, the situation is relatively rare , naturally more conspicuous. But this time, even Louis Dreyfus extracts a large number of raw sugar , but if they want to push up the price of sugar, it is almost impossible . Because of the 1.49 million tons of raw sugar is only the scale equivalent to only 0.8% of global production , the total value of approximately $ 570 million , it  far enough to shake the open market price of raw sugar .

From Louis Dreyfus's action, it is probably due to the estimated price of sugar has bottomed out, in the future , raw sugar supply maybe tension in further, it would be better for rainy day hoarding and waiting for an appropriate time "hanging high to sell " to maximize returns. Since large-scale agricultural traders also started deploying sugar price rebound, it is believed that United States Department of Agriculture will not longer subsidize sugar farmers market .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7159-2013-10-03-01-07-18

囤積居奇 糖市異樣

國際期糖價格連跌兩年，連美國農業部亦要動用公帑入市補貼糖農，避免糖農破產。直至最近終於見期糖市場有異動，過去一個月ICE期糖價格，原來已靜悄悄升近 8%，由每磅約 17 美仙的近年低位，反彈至目前每磅 18 美仙以上。

國際原糖價格自低位反彈，一方面因為全球最大原糖供應國巴西的糖農，嫌糖價太低，紛紛增加對乙醇工業的原糖供應，藉此令原糖市場供應減少以支撐糖價；加上早前巴西氣候不佳，亦影響產量。其次是大型農產品交易商有囤積之嫌。目前全球四大農產品交易商中，Cargill 與 Louis Dreyfus 在期糖市場皆有動作，似乎有睇好糖前景的跡象。

首先，Cargill 在今年 5 月，決定在 ICE（洲際交易所）一口氣提取 143 萬噸的到期原糖；而 Louis Dreyfus 近日亦計劃在 ICE 提取 149 萬噸到期原糖。假如 Louis Dreyfus 最終成功提貨，將會是二十四年來最大宗原糖實貨提取個案。

其實，買家在農產品期貨市場提取大批實貨的情況並不常見，因為很容易被指有操控市場價格的嫌疑。舉例講，2010 年對沖基金 Armajaro 便一口氣在 LIFFE 交易所提取24萬噸可可 (Cocoa)，規模相當於全球 7% 的可可供應，Armajaro 的動機明顯不過。翌年 Louis Dreyfus 亦一口氣在 ICE 提取幾乎全部到期棉花，一度令中國內地的棉花供求出現緊張。因此，期貨交易所現在皆會設定提貨的上限，避免有人藉提取大批實貨囤積以操控市場價格。

Louis Dreyfus 近年在期糖市場，一直只是擔當賣家角色，今次改為大手買貨，而且是實貨，情況比較罕見，自然更加惹人注目。不過，今次 Louis Dreyfus 即使提取大批原糖，但要推高糖價幾乎沒有可能。因為該 149 萬噸原糖，規模只不過相當於全球產量的 0.8%，總價值亦只不過大約 5.7 億美元，遠遠不足以動搖原糖的公開市場價格。

Louis Dreyfus 的動作，相信是由於估計糖價已經見底，在未來日子，原糖供應可能進一步緊張，倒不如未雨綢繆囤積居奇，等待適當時候再「吊高來賣」賺取最大回報。 既然大型農產品交易商亦開始部署糖價反彈，相信美國農業部不用多久便不用再入市補貼糖農。



王冠一財經頻道

The foreign fund favors English stock

The foreign fund favors English stock

27 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Put the eyes into the world, there are only four places where to be truly regarded as the international financial market - Wall Street, New York, where the Abe frequently archery to save the economy, Tokyo Japan, international ATM Hong Kong and the financial center where  Hong Kong investors often ignore, London, UK.

UK National Statistics announced 2012 Britain stock market investor classificationon on Wednesday, it is found that shareholding ratio of foreign investors has exceeded share held by British investors, it means that international investors have been voted a confidence of international status to London financial markets.

It is first time in history that overseas investors hold UK companies shares more than 50% ( 53% non- Britons, Britons 47% ). Recalling the UK stock market history, the stake of foreigners accounted for only 3.6 per cent by the 1980s, up to 31% in 1998, to today's nearly doubled. Of  course, thanks to advances in technology and communications, so that investors break geographical restrictions and fast proficient foreign country financial news. With improving market transparency, as long as profitable, capital nature berthing.

In recent years, multinational M & A activity among numerous , with many overseas companies yearn for London, for example, last year the Russian bank Sberbank raised funds about £ 7.2 billion in the UK Alternative Investment Market (AIM), recently, the U.S. private equity fund Riverstone Holdings's energy investment company also plans listed on the London Stock Exchange and planned to raise £ 1.5 billion. As Overseas companies listed in the UK sotck market increasing, thus, its result is to let London Stock Exchange to made ​​a magnificent publicity and increasing overseas exposure.

North American investors are most active in the UK stock market, accounting for 48 percent last year, the amount of investment is up to £ 451.9B; while Europe accounted for 26 %, the investment amount of more than £ 240B ; Asian funds accounted for 10%. These overseas funds, more than 70% comes from institutional investors, mainly for unit trusts ( 34.4% ), followed by pension funds ( 18% ), banks (7.4%), national governments and sovereign wealth funds about 11%.

In contrast of UK, the proportion of institutional investors in the stock market even have signs of narrowing, but it may cause by balance the risks and pursuit of higher returns activities related. Traditional buyers pension fund's stake from 32% in 1992 and decreased to only 4.7% currently. Another big buyer of the insurance industry accounted for 23.6 percent from 1997, plummeted to 6.2%. Instead, retail stake slight increase ( 10.7% ), became the local largest investor. Accounted for 9.6% of the unit trust (Unit Trust) is second place. Due to the financial crisis, UK government stake Royce (Lloyds), ​​RBS and other banks are about 2.5% share ; banking investment accounted for 1.9%.

In fact, British investors accounted decline does not reflect local investor losing confidence. A large number of overseas companies ( especially in the resources industry ) IPO have come to the London market in recent years, it naturally attracted a large inflow of foreign capital, the proportion of domestic capital only to be diluted only. if there are investors interested in investing in British shares , they are needed to note about British economic data and housing market conditions, moreover, the most important to be concerned that, the U.S. Fed and the Bank of England's monetary policy.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7147-2013-09-27-03-42-58

外資青睞 英國股票

放觀全球，要名副其實稱得上國際金融市場，只有四個地方 ﹣美股所在地紐約、首相頻頻射箭救經濟的日本東京、國際 ATM 香港，以及香港投資者較常忽略的英國金融中心倫敦。

英國國家統計局於周三公布了去年英國股市的投資者分類，發現外國投資者的持股比例，已經超過英國本土投資者所持份額，為倫敦金融市場的國際地位，投下信心一票。

海外投資者持有英國上市公司的股票，歷史上首次超過 50%（非英國人佔 53%，英國人佔 47%）。回顧英國股票市場歷史，外國人的持股比例由 1980 年代僅佔 3.6%，增長至 1998 年的 31%，再到今天的幾近倍增，這當然歸功於科技與通訊的進步，讓投資者打破地域限制，快速通曉彼岸金融消息。隨著市場透明度提高，只要有利可圖，資金自然泊岸。

近年跨國企業間的併購活動多不勝數，加上，不少海外企業對倫敦心嚮往之，包括俄羅斯銀行 Sberbank 去年在英國另類投資市場（AIM）集資 72 億英鎊。近日，美國私募基金 Riverstone Holdings 旗下的能源投資公司亦計劃於倫交所上市，集資 15 億英鎊。於英國上市的海外企業數目日益增加，等於為倫交所作了華麗宣傳，增加海外曝光率。

英國股市的海外投資者中，以北美投資者最為踴躍，佔 48%，去年投資金額高達 4,519 億英鎊；而英國以外的歐洲地區佔 26%，投資金額超過 2,400 億英鎊；亞洲資金則佔 10%。這些海外資金，逾七成來自機構投資者，主要為單位信託基金（佔 34.4%），其次為退休基金（佔 18%）、銀行佔 7.4%，各國政府、主權基金約佔 11%。

反觀英國國內，機構投資者在股市的佔比竟然有縮小的跡象，可能與平衡風險及追求更高回報有關。傳統大買家退休基金的持股比例，由 1992 年 32% 減少至目前僅佔 4.7%。另一大買家保險業則由 1997 年佔 23.6%，急降至 6.2%。反而，散戶的持股比例有些微增幅（佔 10.7%），一躍成為國內最大投資者。佔 9.6% 的單位信託 (Unit Trust) 屈居第二。英國政府則因金融危機時入股萊斯 (Lloyds)、RBS 等銀行，亦有 2.5% 份額；銀行業投資則佔 1.9%。

其實，英國本土投資者佔比下降，並非反映本土投資者失去信心。多家海外大型企業（尤其是資源業）近年紛紛到倫敦上市，自然吸引了大批海外資金流入，本土資金的比重只是被攤薄而已。有興趣投資英股的投資者，比較需要留意英國的經濟數據、樓市狀況，更重要的是美國聯儲局及英倫銀行的貨幣政策走向。



王冠一

VIX Volatility Index rising star

VIX Volatility Index rising star

26 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Although the VIX volatility index has lagged characteristics, we always do not recommend stocks investors who based solely on the VIX Change to decide to invest or to leave away from the stock market. However, VIX volatility index always has its influence to many foreign financial media who will still  use VIX to analyze the U.S. stocks.

VIX (Volatility Index), also known as the fear index. When the index is rising, which represents most investors fear stocks fell ; Conversely, when the index fell, which represents most investors expect stocks to rise.

The principle of calculating VIX actually is very simple, basically it refers to S&P 500 index stocks volatility, it is  indeed reflected in the S&P 500 index associated with short-term options contract price changes - when short-term option contract price rising, which represents more investors purchase S&P 500 options to hedge stocks fell, VIX index will rise ; contrary, when the contract prices fell, which represent investors are reducing to buy the S&P 500 options, VIX index will fall. So there will be an interesting phenomenon : When the VIX index rise, the S&P 500 index fell ; But when the VIX index fell, the S&P 500 index will rise.

If overlap the chart of last year S&P 500 Index and VIX, althrough we can find that the S&P 500 index is upward trend, but last year in February, April, June, August and December, there are total of five significant stocks fell and VIX surged at the same time. time after time, investors found that if VIX surged, they will hastily sell the S&P 500 index futures, in fact, this is not a right investment strategy.

VIX volatility index has been issued by Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) monopoly, although VIX index can not be traded, but it spawned many derivative futures contract business. Last year, VIX futures exchange volumn is up to 23.8M, it is almost twice that of 2011. Recently, the German stock exchange (Deutsche Borse) seems intent to encroach on this market, they via International Securities Exchange, which is owned by them, partnered with index Nation Shares, they newly founded a volatility index called VolDex , there has a ​​clear intention to grab the CBOE business.

Nations Shares criticism, because of the S&P 500 options market illiquidity, sometimes, strange phenomena of VIX futures prices and the VIX index trend divergence happened. VIX index calculated on the basis of traditional illiquid defects, but VolDex calculation is not based on options with  S&P 500 index-linked, but they are associated with SPDR S&P 500 ETF linked, it takes full advantage of the high mobility of ETF options market advantage to calculate volatility index values. However, the use of derivatives with derivatives to estimate the volatility of stocks, that sounds too complicated, I believe the next three to five years, it may not be able to replace the traditional position of VIX.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7143-2013-09-26-03-28-38

波動指數 後起之秀

雖然 VIX 波動指數有滯後的特質，一向不建議美股投資者，單純根據 VIX 的升跌，去決定入市還是離場。不過，VIX 波動指數始終有其江湖地位，不少外國財經媒體依然會用 VIX 來分析美股走勢。

VIX 波動指數 (Volatility Index)，又稱恐慌指數，當指數上升的時候，即代表愈多投資者擔心美股下跌；相反，當指數下跌，即代表愈多投資者預期美股上升。

計算VIX的原理其實好簡單，基本上以標普 500 指數作為美股升跌的參考，指數的升跌，其實是反映與標普 500 指數相關的短期期權 (Short Term Options) 合約價格變化 － 當短期期權合約價格上升，即代表購買標普 500 期權以對沖美股下跌的投資者增加，VIX 指數便上升；相反，當合約價格下跌，即購買標普 500 期權的投資者減少，VIX 指數便下跌。於是會出現有趣的現象：當 VIX 指數上升，標普 500 指數下跌；但當 VIX 指數下跌，標普 500 指數便會上升。

如果把過去一年標普 500 指數與 VIX 重疊，便會發現，雖然標普 500 指數趨勢向上，但去年 12 月、今年 2 月、4 月、6 月、8 月美股共五次較顯著的下跌當中，VIX 當時皆急升。久而久之，投資者以為只要發現 VIX 急升，便急急沽出標普 500指數期貨，其實這種投資策略不太正確。

VIX 波動指數多年來一直由芝加哥期權交易所 (CBOE) 壟斷經營，雖然 VIX 指數本身不能買賣，但就衍生出許多期貨 (Futures) 合約生意。去年 VIX 期貨的轉手量即高達 2,380 萬張，差不多是 2011 年的兩倍。最近，德意志證券交易所 (Deutsche Borse) 似乎有意染指這個市場，透過旗下國際證券交易所 (International Securities Exchange)，夥拍指數公司 Nation Shares，創立一隻叫做 VolDex 的波動指數，擺明有意搶 CBOE 的生意。

Nations Shares 批評，由於標普 500 期權市場流動性不足，所以有時會出現 VIX 期貨價格走勢與 VIX 指數走勢背馳的怪現象。針對傳統 VIX 指數計算基礎流動性不足的缺陷，VolDex 主要計算的期權並非跟標普 500 指數掛鉤，而是跟 SPDR 標普 500 的 ETF 掛鈎，充分利用 ETF 期權市場流動性較高的優勢以計算出波動指數的數值。然而，利用衍生工具的衍生工具，來估計美股的波動情況，聽起來也覺得太複雜，相信未來三至五年亦未必能夠取代 VIX 的傳統地位。



王冠一財經頻道

European Central Bank, there's no smoke without fire

European Central Bank, there's no smoke without fire

25 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suddenly indicates that they are ready to re-launch the third round of LTRO ( Long Term Refinancing Operation ) to meet the capital needs of the financial markets.

European Central Bank provided unlimited amount of low-interest loans that technically would increase liquidity in the short term, but in the long-term, it will not make the money supply increases. The total over of the past two trillion euros LTRO program has successfully proved that those such loans help European financial system to avoid a credit crunch, European banks have access to cheaper loans, and then they are able to purchase a high interest rate debt interest margins, so it succeeded in lowering the debt interest rate to evade another debt crisis in Europe.

Draghi hinted this again "increase liquidity", suggesting either a credit crunch in Europe's financial system risk, or he is to imply that the European debt bond yields have increasing risk. However, I believe Draghi's main motivation is to meet U.S. Fed delisting to take preventive measures, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier just talked about delisting without action, global bond yields have rallied, pumping height of each type of interest rate, money market immediately tense up, therefore, it is necessary to prepare the European to avoid another credit crunch when the Fed actually occurs delisting.

In addition, European banks have not seriously addressed the problem of "lack of capital", that is the reasons of ECB to always be required to meet the financial market liquidity. Draghi recently attended the European Parliament hearings, once again called on European countries, they should expeditiously implement the Banking Union (Banking Union), the European Central Bank should not count on long-term salvation of all European banks and let ECB takes up all the responsibility,

Moreover, Greece is preparing to reach out and seek for the third tranche loan, so I believe that Greece is also in Draghi focus. Although Draghi said that Greece has no immediate crisis now, but he called on all parties that it should not be expected " three carriages " ( European Central Bank, the EU and IMF) assume all risks in Europe, that's implied that if Greek debt in case if it is really defaulted, it would bound to implicate European banks, it seems that ECB will probably have to rescue of European banks again at that moment.

Mario Draghi has since served European Central Bank President, it has introduced " Alphabet Soup " and other extraordinary measures to stabilize the financial system of the euro area, Not only the main relieve tension of LTRO bank credit, but also asked member states to buy unlimited bonds the OMT ( Reversal financial transactions ), having both comparison, OMT has not been used, but third wave LTRO is getting ready to launched, it reflected the actually euro area banking problems is more urgent than the European debt problem.

For foreign investors, it is worth noting that since the two groups LTRO launched in financial markets, the euro exchange rate is subject to considerable pressure at the early time, but as the market gradually restore confidence in European debt and the EURO, and also those European banks have early repayment to LTRO loans, the EURO began to rebound, It follows that, if the European Central Bank decided to re-launch the third round of LTRO, investors should be prepared that the EURO could once again under pressure.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7140-2013-09-25-06-19-38

歐洲央行 空穴來風

歐洲央行總裁德拉吉，突然表示已隨時準備好再推出第三輪 LTRO（長期再融資操作），以應付金融市場的資金需要。

歐洲央行向銀行提供這種無限量低息貸款，技術上只會短期增加資金流動性，長遠不會令貨幣供應增加，過去兩輪合計逾萬億歐元的 LTRO 計劃已成功證明，這類貸款既能夠避免歐洲金融體系出現信貸緊縮，銀行亦因為獲得便宜的貸款，於是能夠購買高息的歐債賺取息差，結果成功壓低歐債息率，避過了另一次歐債危機。

今次德拉吉又再暗示「放水」，要不是暗示歐洲金融體系有信貸緊縮風險，就是在暗示歐債債息有上升風險。不過，相信德拉吉的主要動機，是為迎接美國聯儲局退市做足預防措施，因為早前聯儲局主席伯南克只是嘴巴說說退市而已，環球債息已告急升，抽高各類利率，令銀根即時緊張起來，因此，歐洲有必要做好準備，避免當儲局真正退市時出現另一次信貸緊縮。

除此以外，歐資銀行一直沒有認真處理缺資問題，亦是歐洲央行時刻需要滿足金融市場流動性的原因之一。德拉吉日前出席歐洲議會聽證會時，再一次呼籲歐洲各國應盡快落實銀行業聯盟 (Banking Union)，而不應該長期指望歐洲央行揹起拯救所有歐資銀行的責任。

另外，希臘據聞正準備伸手尋求第三筆借貸，所以希臘相信也是德拉吉關注的焦點。雖然德拉吉認為，希臘沒有即時危機，但他呼籲各方不應該指望「三頭馬車」（歐洲央行、歐盟與 IMF）承擔所有風險，暗示萬一希債真要「剃頭」，勢必牽連歐洲銀行業，屆時歐洲央行恐怕又要出手拯救了。

德拉吉自從出任歐洲央行總裁以來，便不斷推出「字母湯」等非常手段去穩住歐元區的金融體系，除了主要紓緩銀行信貸緊張的 LTRO 之外，還提出無限量直接購買成員國國債的 OMT（沖銷金融交易）。兩者比較之下，OMT 至今一次未用過，但 LTRO 第三波則已準備就緒，反映歐元區的銀行問題，似乎比歐債問題更加逼切。

對外匯投資者而言，值得留意的是，當初兩批 LTRO 推出金融市場時，歐元匯價初期受到頗大壓力，但隨著市場慢慢恢復對歐債與歐元的信心，與及銀行紛紛提早償還 LTRO 貸款，歐元匯價開始止跌回升。照此推斷，如果歐洲央行決定再推出第三輪 LTRO，投資者應該有心理準備，歐元匯價可能再度受壓。



王冠一

Abe promotes female employment

Abe promotes female employment
23 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/2012-06-14-19-49-09/7132-2013-09-21-17-21-19

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

The so-called "Abenomics", is inseparable from the concept of economic that reforms hastening inflation, improved fiscal and stimulate growth of several major goals. Monetary and fiscal policies pronged mention, Abe also proposed various enterprise reform and taxation reform, in order to enhance the overall competitiveness of Japanese companies as the major premise.

As more Abenomics reforms tricks will be coming soon. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the late U.S. President John F. Kennedy daughter Carol Lin, is expected to become the first female of U.S. Ambassador to Japan, Japanese people have always worshiped foreign charismatic figure, the late British Princess Diana's clothing store, it was once a Japanese women's trend indicators ; Today Carol Lin extraordinary charm of visiting Japan, I believe that certainly will not miss as Abe policy advocacy opportunities, promotion of female employment benefits of the economic recovery,

In fact, in recent years, Continental Europe and the UK have begun to promote and increase of women in senior management positions in companies in proportion to encourage more women to work, it is used to enhance the country's overall productivity. Japan's late start in this respect, As the words " men outside, women inside " traditional culture in Japan, the difficulty of policy implementation is comparative higher,

Japan's aging and declining fertility problem are serious, it is leading to shrinking labor force, it also means that Japan government support of national spending is getting bigger, but the national productivity is deteriorating. To break this deadlock,at this moment, to encourage fertility is too slow also, so it is better to allow more highly educated women to join into workforce.

Abe is concerned, to promote female employment, both to help stimulate the economy, but also help to improve inflation. This is not difficult to understand, because,  according to statistics, the average spending power of Japanese women is higher than the average male citizens. when women have jobs, their disposable income increase, the consumer spending will also be increased.

Studies have estimated that if Japan's female employment rate increase to Group of Seven (G7) level, Japan's per capita GDP can be upgraded 4-5 percentage points ; Japan's total GDP is expected to swell by 14%.

Promote female employment also help to improve Japan's government finances, if the government wants to raise up revenue, they either raise taxes rate or they try to get more people fall into the tax net. The encourage of more women to join the workforce, in fact, it helps to raise up revenue, thereby improving fiscal situation.

It is said that Abe is ready a series of recommendations to encourage women to join the workforce, and in 2020 as the goal, including: - equal pay - corporate senior management positions, the proportion of women at least 30% - at least every company to employ a female administrative staff - increase allocate public resources daytime baby care, so that mothers can rest assured to work - to extend maternity leave from the current one year to three years, in order to encourage serving female fertility.

Because, In Japan, if there are two adults working in family, the family will be levied heavy taxes, plus imports FDH laws are too stringent, resulting in Japanese women, selection between full-time work and full-time mother, they can only choose one. According to statistics, up to 70 % of Japanese women, when they will become mother soon, they quit their jobs immediately, it caused the result of social appeared to two extremes: women working full-time, low fertility, and when the mother takes care baby, they are too busy and they will not be reintegration work.

If Carol Lin smoothly goto Japan assume office, I believe that Japanese media will be attentively to put her playing as new generation of career woman model. We 'll see !

安倍提倡 女性就業

Written by 王冠一

所謂的《安倍經濟學》，經濟改革理念離不開催谷通脹、改善財政與刺激增長幾大目標。貨幣與財政政策雙管齊下不在話下，安倍還提出種種企業改革以至稅務改革，以提升日本企業整體競爭力為大前題。

原來安倍經濟改革的招數陸續有來。如無意外，美國已故總統甘迺迪女兒卡露蓮，有望成為首位出任美國駐日大使的女性。日本國民向來崇拜外國有魅力的人物，英國已故儲妃戴安娜的衣著，便曾經是日本女裝的潮流指標；如今魅力過人的卡露蓮到訪日本，相信安倍肯定不會放過作為政策宣傳的機會，推銷女性就業對經濟復蘇的好處。

其實，歐洲大陸與英國近年已開始提倡，增加女性在企業中高層管理職位的比例，以鼓勵更多女性投入工作，提升國家整體生產力。這方面日本起步較晚，加上「男主外、女主內」的傳統文化，推行難度亦較高。

日本老齡化與生育率下降問題嚴重，導致勞動力不斷萎縮，意味政府支援國民的開支愈來愈大，但國民的生產力則每況愈下。要突破這個困局，鼓勵生育也嫌太慢，倒不如讓更多高學歷的女性投身工作。

對安倍來講，提倡女性就業，既有助刺激經濟，亦有助改善通脹。這方面不難理解，因為根據統計，日本女性的平均消費力，要比一般男性國民為高。而當女性擁有工作，可支配收入 (Disposable Income) 增加，消費開支亦隨之增加。

有研究估計，假如日本女性就業率能夠提升至七大工業國 (G7) 水平，日本的人均GDP便可以提升 4 至 5 個百分點；日本 GDP 總值則有望膨脹 14%。

提倡日本女性就業亦有助改善政府財政。因為政府要提高稅收，要不是提高稅率，就只有設法讓更多國民掉進稅網。而鼓勵更多女性投身工作，其實有助增加庫房收入，進而改善財政赤字的狀況。

據聞安倍已準備好一系列鼓勵女性投身工作的建議，並以2020年為目標，包括： － 男女同工同酬 － 企業高級管理職位，女性比例至少 30% － 每家企業至少聘請一名女性行政人員 － 增撥公營日間嬰兒護理資源，讓媽媽可以放心工作 － 延長產假，由目前1年，延長至3年，以鼓勵在職女性生育

由於日本家庭假如有兩人工作便要抽重稅，加上進口外傭法例過嚴，導致日本女性往往只能在全職工作與全職媽媽之間任擇其一。據統計，高達 70% 的日本女性在當上媽媽之後便立即辭去工作，結果社會出現兩個極端：全職工作的女性，生育率偏低，而當媽媽的，則分身不暇，無法重返社會工作。

假如卡露蓮順利到日本履新，相信日本傳媒將會用心把她打造成新一代事業型女性的典範。大家等著瞧吧！

王冠一

Apple, after the era of Steve Jobs

Apple, after the era of Steve Jobs
23 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7134-2013-09-23-04-25-47

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Ever since Steve Jobs passed away, the market has been criticism in successor Tim Cook that he is not enough creativity, it caused Apple's stock price tumbled. Sometimes thunder without both of Apple's flagship product, iPhone, is also no longer the sole focus of the smart phone.

Steve Jobs , technology genius,  has always been an ability to change the game rules of the world, so, now, Apples's problem is not from Cook. whether the decline of the Apple brand will be real or not, the key is a set of strategies for sustainable development. Although Steve Jobs had introduced new stuff constantly and leading technological trends, But the problem is that he did not put the enterprise sustainable development into standardization. Simply speaking , the development of the company entirely based on his personal views, so when Steve Jobs disappeared , Apple becomes leaderless group without Systematic operation.

Recently, the focus of Apple's three main characters : Cook , chief designer Jonathan Ive and Senior vice president of software engineering Craig Federighi, takes the initiative in an interview , Seems to want to let the market to re-recognize the value of Apple .

Apple products have always been high-end market, customer layer is relatively narrow , Unless it has introduced a revolutionary product, it would be difficult to achieve in quantity to win. In the smart phone market, for example, many experts believe that Apple should consider launching a lower-end products, targeting different consumer groups. However, in the interview, Cook said assertions about the possibility of exclusion. Cook believes that although high-end and low-end smart phone market of similar size, but Apple will stick to the high road. It is also regarded as Steve Jobs, who has always been loyal to the pursuit of perfection, refusing "to low quality for low price" style.

For the criticism that Apple is too slow to introduce new products, and let Samsung and other electronics brands take advantage from it, it caused Apple losing customers. Feideliji countered that "New is easy, right is hard", Ironically Samsung products cast by stoning forest ridiculous, highlighting Apple will launch the market really needs.

Cook also tried to change the market view, they always thought that Apple iOS market share is less than Google Android operating system, he is emphasizing that the products 'usage', comparing to general market representing "sales" assess market share, is more valuable (because the iOS operating system usage is up to 55% while Android is only 28%). In addition, in Tablet PC market, online shopping is almost monopolized using iPad in the U.S. market. Furthermore, support for iOS App revenue is much more than the support for Android App (even Android App downloads far more than Apple). Cook would like to take evidence that only Apple's products have the ability to call consumers pocket.

In addition, Apple executives believe that, refer to the users, smart phones operating system often in the latest version is very important. In fact, many users criticized, even if they purchase the newest models handset of Android operating system, but its built-in system is still the old version, and it also cannot be updated, it is frustrating. Android flaunt that it is flourishing commercial benefits people with different needs; However, Apple believes that this will make a lot of sacrifices to share the same platform with a user business value derived.

Steve Jobs has become legendary, Apple successors resolutely take the "high, specialized, sophisticated" way (ie, high-grade, specialized, sophisticated), the first bargain (Price), revisit the volume (Volume), it causes Apple's future development would be logical, Needless picky.

蘋果後喬布斯年代

Written by 王冠一

自從喬布斯 (Steve Jobs) 過身之後，市場一直有意見批評繼任人庫克 (Tim Cook) 不夠創意，弄致蘋果公司股價大跌。一時風頭無倆的蘋果旗艦產品 iPhone，亦不再是智能手機的唯一焦點。

喬布斯本來就是一位有能力改變科技世界遊戲規則的天才，所以錯不在庫克。至於蘋果品牌會否沒落，關鍵在於一套可持續發展的策略。昔日喬布斯雖然不斷推出新玩意，帶領科技潮流，但弊在他沒有把集團的可持續發展規範化。簡單講，即公司發展完全根據他一個人的意願而走，所以當喬布斯一消失，集團頓變得群龍無首，不懂系統化運作。

近日蘋果三大重心人物：庫克、首席設計師埃維 (Jonathan Ive) 與軟件工程高級副總裁費德里吉 (Craig Federighi)，主動接受專訪，似乎希望讓市場重新認清蘋果公司的價值。

蘋果產品向來主打高檔市場，「客路」相對較狹窄，除非不斷推出革命性產品，否則難以做到以量取勝。以智能手機市場為例，不少專家認為，蘋果應該考慮推出較低檔次的產品，主攻不同消費群。不過，庫克在專訪中，斷言排除了有關可能性。庫克認為，雖然高檔與低檔智能手機市場規模相當，但蘋果只會堅持走高檔路線。這亦算是忠於喬布斯一貫追求完美，拒絕「將貨就價」的作風。

對於有批評指蘋果推出新款產品的速度太慢，讓三星等電子品牌有機可乘，流失客戶。 費德里吉反駁，認為 New is easy, right is hard，借諷刺三星產品亂石投林的可笑，凸顯蘋果才會推出市場真正需要的產品。

庫克亦嘗試改變市場一貫以為蘋果 iOS 操作系統市佔率不及 Google Android 的看法，強調產品的「使用量」，較市場一般以「銷售量」評估市佔率更有參考價值（因為 iOS 操作系統的使用量高達 55%，反觀 Android 只有 28%）；另外，平板電腦市場中，使用 iPad 網上購物幾乎壟斷了美國市場。再者，支援 iOS 的應用程式 (App) 收入，亦較支援 Android 的 App 為多（即使 Android App 下載量遠超蘋果）。庫克想借此證明，只有蘋果的產品才有能力叫消費者掏腰包。

另外，蘋果高層認為，智能手機作業系統常常處於最新版本，對用家非常重要。其實不少用家批評，即使購買 Android 操作系統的最新機款，其內置的系統版本依然是舊款，且無法更新，令人感到沮喪。Android 標榜這是百花齊放的商業效益，切合不同人士需要；然而，蘋果則認為這樣會犧牲讓大量用家共用同一作業平台所衍生的商業價值。

喬布斯已成為一代傳奇，蘋果接班人堅決走「高、專、精」路線（即高檔、專門、精巧），先講價 (Price)，再講量 (Volume)，對蘋果公司今後的發展實在合情合理，毋庸挑剔。



王冠一

Google Apple executives cooperation

Google Apple executives cooperation
20 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7131-2013-09-20-03-41-42

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Google CEO Larry Page recently personally announced that he  will coopearte with Apple Chairman Arthur Levinson to set up a new personal care company, they hope to help mankind to explore the secrets of longevity . Google and Apple are competitors in the business , they actually go together to have high-level cooperation , it is interesting .

The new company is named Calico, mainly to study the anti-aging and related diseases , including cancer ; while the Chief Executive Officer , will be appointed to Arthur Levinson .

Arthur had served as former board member of Google and he is concurrently the biotechnology company Genentech and Apple's Chairman of the Board . Interestingly , Google and Apple are very supportive Arthur as the new company CEO. Page is leading scientists to describe Arthur ; Apple CEO Tim Cook  also cited the words of Arthur that around family and friends should not be shortened lifespan due to illness , but should try to live better .

In fact , as early as Arthur , before, the current Google executive chairman Eric Schmidt also has the same time to " step " through Google and Apple two " boats " , so Arthur's case is not particularly abnormal . In 2006, Schmidt also titled as Apple's board of director and Google chief executive at the same time, subsequently due to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) questioned the practice of breach of competition law , finally Schmidt left Apple in 2009 .

Google and Apple are now actively developing portable running devices, those electronic devices will be associated with the health care business . Therefore , Arthur could eventually be challenged identity conflicts of interest exist and need to resign Calico posts. However, I believe that, the final fate of Arthur 's personnel depends on some special ideas from the government and related departments .

Calico belong biotechnology company , with Google and Apple's general business , almost nearly none . Page also admitted that the new company is actually deviated from the Group's established businesses. However, such investments compared with the Group's core business , accounting for only a small part of outsiders without fuss.

Page to Moonshot ( moon ) behavior described this initiative, the long-term hope to improve millions of lives. While Google has yet to formulate Calico business details, but told that they would take advantage of Google's data processing techniques to assist in research and development deal with the aging disease.

Google has been towards diversified development , in addition to the core of the online business, these years of research and development projects focused on including renewable energy, smart grid , Google Glass, automatic car ( ie driverless car ) and so on. I believe in the near future , Calico will bring us another surprise.

谷歌蘋果 高層合作

Written by 王冠一

Google 行政總裁佩奇 (Larry Page) 日前親自宣布，將與蘋果公司主席 Arthur Levinson，合作經營一間全新成立的個人護理公司，希望幫人類探尋到延年益壽的秘方。Google 與蘋果在生意上是競爭對手，兩者高層竟走在一起合作，饒有趣味。

新公司名為 Calico，主要研究有關延緩衰老及相關疾病，包括癌症；而行政總裁一職，將由 Arthur Levinson 出任。

Arthur 曾經出任 Google 前董事會成員，並同時兼任生物科技公司 Genentech 及蘋果公司的董事會主席。有趣的是，Google 與蘋果均十分支持 Arthur 出任新公司 CEO。佩奇形容 Arthur 是領先的科學家；蘋果行政總裁庫克 (Tim Cook) 亦引述 Arthur 的話，認為身邊家人與朋友，不應該因疾病而縮短壽命，反而應該設法活得更好。

其實，早在 Arthur 之前，現任 Google 執行主席斯密特 (Eric Schmidt) 亦曾經同一時間「踏」過 Google 與蘋果公司這「兩條船」，所以 Arthur 的情況不算特別異常。斯密特 2006 年甚至同時擔任蘋果董事會成員，兼 Google 行政總裁，其後因聯邦貿易委員會 (FTC) 質疑做法違反競爭法，最後斯密特於 2009 年離開蘋果。

目前 Google 與蘋果皆積極研發手提跑步器，這些電子設備便跟健康護理生意有關聯。因此，Arthur 最終有可能被質疑身分存在利益衝突而需要辭去 Calico 的職位。然而，最終 Arthur 的人事去留，相信反而要視乎政府與相關部門一些特別的想法。

Calico 屬於生物科技公司，跟 Google 及蘋果的一般業務，幾乎亳無關係。佩奇亦承認，新公司其實偏離了集團固有的業務。不過，這類投資跟集團核心業務相比，只佔一小部分，外界人士毋須大驚小怪。

佩奇以 Moonshot（登月）行為形容今次的創舉，長遠希望可以改善數以百萬計的生命。雖然 Google 目前尚未制訂 Calico 經營的細節，但據聞會利用 Google 的數據處理技術，協助研發應對老化疾病的方法。

Google 一直朝多元發展，除了核心的網上業務之外，幾年重點的研發項目包括再生能源、智能電網、Google Glass、自動車（即無人駕駛汽車）等。相信不久的將來，Calico 將為我們帶來另一次驚喜。

王冠一

JP Morgan Chase changing strategy, harmony on the surface but struggle inside

19 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7128-2013-09-19-03-41-51

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon initiative adjusted the group strategy to deploy recently, but this did not represent him to plan the change to the large-scale bank management pattern inherent manner.

As JP Morgan Chase has 260K staffs all over the world, the contrary situation is unavoidable, however, those occurs in JP Morgan Chase seems endless. Many politicians hope “London whale incident” can frustrate Dimon's arrogance as early as it can, even if it can compels him to leave office, at least it maybe compel to JP Morgan Chase to take the lead to give up the bank supermarket pattern. Therefore various financial supervising and managing institution omni-directional in view of JP Morgan Chase for many years to monitor a series of contrary behaviors and takes the action, expected to exerts pressure which  may submit to Dimon.

In “London whale incident”, JP Morgan Chase estimated to compensate at least 700 million US$ to British and American Supervising and managing Institution, and recently JP Morgan Chase also involves into credit card account safeguard (Payment Protection) false service charges - to refer the misleading customer, it is unclear confession related expense which had not been only attaches the service, thus possibly needed to fine 60M US$ to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and 20M US$ to Consumer Finance Protection Bureau.

Also JP Morgan Chase had a suspected processing mistakes which related to debt customer account(Abuse of Debt Collection), it is pointed that they are not clearly demonstrate the debt customer of funds returing record and newest debt situation; Moreover JP Morgan Chase is suspected to Energy futures price index manipulation, Chinese business bribery, MBS sales practices and other activities were not real.

However, Dimon is aggressive and he will absolutely not to yield. He uses this chance to adaptable. Recently he is high-sounding to talk appealed to the staff to take preparation for future battle. This is implied that JP Morgan Chase can fight to the bitter end with the supervising and managing institution.

Dimon adopts the simplification but not thin body of company structure strategy: Increase hiring 3,000 people to deal with the supervising and managing organization for future lawsuit, and they also increasing risk management budgets to 1B US$ this year to strengthens the risk management team; Moreover they continue to sell the non-core business, it includes spin-off private equity fund, selling commodity exchange service, the suspension of sales student loans, and they are also examining the overseas bank service. The goal is only for decreaseing the opportunity of supervision from supervising and managing institution in future. Most important is strengthens the national service, the nationa manpower increases instead of decreases.(What comes having of the thin body?)

Before, former Treasury Secretary Summers Lawrence Summers personally set free the financial derivation tool market, who formally abandoned race next Fed Chairman, it may not be a good news which refer to Dimon. According to style of Janet Yellen who has been attended Clinton economical staff period, she supported to restore Glass-Steagall Act (i.e. Which requires the separation of commercial banking and investment banking).Damon seems to realize the smart, the challenge for the major banks is far from disappearing, it is better gearing up adopted piecemeal.

摩通變陣 明和暗鬥
Written by 王冠一財經頻道

摩根大通行政總裁戴蒙 (Jamie Dimon)，近日主動調整集團策略部署，但這並不代表他打算改變對大型銀行經營模式的固有態度。

摩通全球有 26 萬員工，違規情況難免，然而，發生在摩通身上的情況似乎沒完沒了。不少政客其實早在摩通的「倫敦鯨事件」發生後，便希望能夠挫挫戴蒙銳氣，甚至逼他下台，或至少能夠逼摩通帶頭放棄銀行超市模式。各金融監管機關於是全方位針對摩通多年來一系列違規行為並採取行動，期望施壓可以令戴蒙屈服。

單就「倫敦鯨事件」，估計摩通便要向英美監管機關賠償至少 7 億美元；近日摩通又牽涉信用卡簽帳保障 (Payment Protection) 服務收費不實 － 被指誤導客戶，未清楚交代有關費用是只是附加服務，因而可能需要分別罰款 6,000 萬美元予貨幣監理署 (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency) 及 2,000 萬美元予消費者金融保障局 (Consumer Finance Protection Bureau)。

除此以外，摩通又涉嫌處理欠債客戶帳目時犯錯（所謂 Abuse of Debt Collection），被指未有清楚顯示欠債客戶的還款與最新負債情況；另外摩通又涉嫌能源期貨價格指數操控、中國業務行賄、銷售 MBS 手法不實等活動。

然而，好勝的戴蒙，斷不會輕易屈服。他反而借機變陣，近日還高調呼籲員工做好心理準備，準備未來的連場硬仗。言下之意，他已申明摩通會跟監管機關周旋到底。

戴蒙採取精簡而不瘦身的策略：增聘 3,000 人應付監管機構與訴訟，今年並且增加風險管理預算 10 億美元，以強化風險管理團隊；另外又繼續出售非核心業務，包括分拆私募基金、出售商品交易業務、停售學生貸款，並正檢討海外銀行業務，目的只為減低日後被監管機關刁難的機會。最重要是強化本土業務，本土人手不減反增。（何來瘦身之有？）

昔日親手放生金融衍生工具市場，不受監管的前財長薩默斯 (Lawrence Summers)，正式放棄角逐下任聯儲局主席，對戴蒙來講，反而未必是好消息。因為據聞目前大熱耶倫 (Janet Yellen)，昔日出席克林頓經濟幕僚期間，曾支持恢復 Glass-Steagall Act（即要求商業銀行與投資銀行分家）。聰明的戴蒙似乎意識到，針對大型銀行的挑戰遠未消失，倒不如整裝待發，準備見招拆招。

王冠一財經頻道

The national debt falls into disfavor, the stock to take refuge from danger?

09 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7097-2013-09-09-03-39-52

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

The US 10years bond interest was broken through 3% psychological important last week, whether the bond market fund did rush $ to stock market,it is worth paying attention.

Actually, not only the US bond price anxiously fall (i.e. bond interest rate to rise anxiously) recently, but also the European multi-country's national bond price, and, the Germany 10 years bond interest rate has risen to 2%, it is the first time of passed 17 months, also the English 10 years bond interest rate have been risen to 3%, it is the first time of passed 26 months.If the European and US  bond interest rate continues together  uneven upward, it really caused the worry that it will appear the bond disaster.

Refer to US bond, regardless of the short years note perhaps compares with the long year bond, the price falls recently. Above Thursday (5 Sep) situation, it is serious, the US 5 years bond interest rate rises to 28 month top digits, 10 years bond interest rate also to rise to 26 month top digits, reflected that US bond investor, they are not using the strategy of adopts “sell long buy short” plan, but they had withdraws the US bonds, the sign shows  comprehensively and the situation is disquieting.

Because next week Federal Reserve reconsiders the interest rate, the market mainstream opinion recognized this Federal Reserve can certainly start draws back from market; also the strong trend of US$ in exchange market, the various countries' currency exchange rate was bearing, it urges worldwide country central bank to sell the American country bond to support their own currency exchange rate, above all sorts are  causes the American country bond to suffer selling factor.

The market has the opinion to believe, since US bond already no longer safe, they would rather move the fund equity to the stock to achieve for higher return. At least  most of mutual fund and the retired fund stand on this manner, they are moving the equity to stock market, that's why will the short-term US Stock market be always strength strong, it is the important reason. Althrough those fund continues to do so, it does not represent the stock market is the ideal refuge shelter.

First, the US bond still has its attraction: 10 years bond interest rate has been risen to 3%, many stocks also did not have this attractive repayment, moreover, if the Middle East erupts accidentally go into war, it will have the possibility to initiate the whole world money market to be panic, at that moment the US bond possibly will takes refuge function from danger again, furthermore, if the United States Congress rapidly achieves the mutual recognition on the fiscal budget, US bond confidence will be fast de-emphasis; Under compares, the US stock appears has unbearabl chill in a high position: SP 500 indices, from 2009 until now, accumulation rise close 90%! If the Middle East war happened, it will be an execuse to make a stock market adjustment.

The bond King (Bill Gross) also believed that, the stock market is not sure to be the safest equity, He suggested the US bond investor should invest short time bond or note. The reason is that, as far as possible,  even if Federal Reserve quit those QE, they still want to suppress the federation fund interest rate nearby zero level in a certain of time. But it is a pity that, even if Debt King,  the investment performance also repeatedly loses accuracy recently, his PIMCO Total Return the Fund property scale is withered nearby 14% within 4 months period, from 292B US dollars shrank to 251B US dollars, it has drained 41B US dollars! Only in August, the fund has been redeemed 8.8B dollars. As for the investor, now the national bond market may be said the crest of wave fire intensity, the investor “hears the debt discoloration”, even if the Debt King's suggestion has its good point, but, the Debt King is natural “sells the debt to approve the debt to be fragrant”, the investor one in turning a deaf ear to.


國債失寵 股票避險？

Written by 王冠一

美國十年期債息，上周突破 3 厘心理關口，到底債市資金湧向股市，值得關注。

其實，近期非但美債價格急跌（即債息急升），連歐洲多國的國債價格亦紛紛下跌，其中，德國十年期債息十七個月以來首度升穿 2%，而英國十年期債息更是二十六個月以來首度升穿 3%。假如歐美債息繼續齊齊向上，實在叫人擔心會出現債災。

美債方面，無論是較短年期或是較長年期的，價格幾乎全線下跌。以上周四情況較為嚴重，當中，美國五年期債息升至二十八個月高位、十年期債息亦升至二十六個月高位，反映美債投資者，並非採取「沽長買短」的策，而是有全面撤出美債跡象，情況令人憂慮。

由於下周聯儲局又再議息，市場主流意見認定今次儲局一定會啟動退市；加上美匯強勢未變，各國貨幣匯價受壓，促使各地央行沽售美債，支撐本國貨幣匯價，以上種種皆是導致美債捱沽的因素。

市場有意見認為，既然國債已經不再安全，倒不如把資金轉投股票爭取較高回報。大量互惠基金以至退休基金抱持這種態度，紛紛入市，這亦是近期美股為何總是抗跌力強的重要原因。不過，資金持續由債市轉投股市，並不代表股市是理想的避難所。

首先，美債仍具吸引力：十年債息升至 3 厘，回報較不少股票還要吸引，況且，中東萬一爆發戰事，有可能引發全球金融市場恐慌，屆時美債便可能回復避險功能，再者，假如美國國會迅速就財政預算達成共識，美債信心將快速復元；相較之下，美股則顯得高處不勝寒：標普 500 指數，自 2009 年至今，累計升幅接近 90%！萬一中東發生戰事，不排除來一次借勢調整。

連債王格羅斯 (Bill Gross) 亦認為，股票未必是最安全的資產，建議債券投資者應該盡量投資短期的債券或票據，理由是即使聯儲局退市，仍要長時間壓住聯邦基金利率在接近零水平。只可惜，諷刺的是即使債王，投資表現亦頻頻失準，他的 PIMCO Total Return Fund 資產規模，過去四個月萎縮 14%，由2920億美元，縮至 2,510 億美元，足足流失了 410 億！僅8月份的贖回金額便達到 88 億。對於投資者來講，現在債市可謂風頭火勢，投資者「聞債色變」，就算債王的建議有其可取之處，不過，債王當然「賣債讚債香」，投資者一於充耳不聞。


王冠一

Automobile sale positive cycle in US

Automobile sale positive cycle in US

06 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7092-2013-09-06-01-38-01

(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

 American newest announcement in August auto sale data, is much better.Regardless of is the US territory or the overseas import automobile brand, majority of all records the two-position digital rise, imports the vehicle to account for the overall sales volume proportion even to surpass one half.

In August US equals the new vehicle which sells, compared the same time last year to increase 17%, altogether sold 150 ten thousand (to total approximately by year rate sells surpasses 1,600 ten thousand vehicles), some research calculation, estimated was equal 7.5% has the driver's license national in the entire America, has purchased the new vehicle in August.Formerly the American economy truly recovered, had the car license to buy the new vehicle the national proportion, usually achieved above 8%.Therefore, has the expert to infer, so long as the American economy has not had has the significant reversal, believed the national buys the vehicle the power to be supposed to be possible to continue many several years.

The American economy resembles non-well, still can attract the national to purchase the new vehicle or the used car in this way exchanges, mainly many reason influence.First, the American consumers hug are hurrying to catch the low interest tail bus service the point of view, worried the interest rate soon rises again, therefore quickly changes vehicle or buys the vehicle.Next, rents a car the proportion also has the trend of escalation; Before economic recession, US national's average rents a car rate only 16%, but this year rents a car accounts for the new vehicle sale proportion to rise to 26%.Because renting a car trades the new style regularly, leads new Che Xiaoqing naturally.

Moreover, the cable car tidal current gradually makes a name, Shan Ji in August, the entire America then sells surpasses 1 ten thousand cable cars.In multitudinous brands, when most strikes the eye by person with newly acquired wealth Tesla.Although Tesla has not had the numeral which confession in August the new vehicle sells, but the group passes several month average each month in the North America area to sell 1,500 to 2,000 new style cable cars.As for other cart yard for example daily production Leaf, general chevrolet Volt, Toyota Prius, the sale all has leaps forward.

Except for this, the US national massive home use used cars and Pickup Trucks (small shipment truck) of age retires one after another, breeds formidable changes vehicle the demand; Just happens to meet US to receive the vehicle brisk trade, has a vehicle race used car to exchange the vehicle meaning to be naturally more intense.But grows day by day along with the US territory oil gas output, the gas price continues to recede the trust to be able to be the major tendency, is like this also helpful to encourage the national to restore the dependence to use the vehicle gradually the custom.

Actually, the American new vehicle sale data approaches well, to the American economic resurgence is a positive cycle.Because of the US territory automobile brand sale, meant the retail sales sale data makes, the national expends cares for exuberantly.The cart yard aspect is willing to invest naturally increases production, the employment advertise increases, the worker then has the labor to open, further leads the expense.When the employment and the manufacturing industry data improve in pairs, the American economy only then is considered as on advances to road of truly the anabiosis.

汽車熱賣 良性循環

Written by 王冠一

美國最新公布的 8 月份汽車銷售數據，好得令人難以置信。無論是美國本土還是海外進口汽車品牌，大部分皆錄得雙位數字升幅，進口車佔整體銷量比重甚至超過一半。

8 月份美國合計賣出的新車，較去年同期增加 17%，共賣出約 150 萬輛（以年率計共賣出超過 1,600 萬輛車），有研究推算，估計相當於全美 7.5% 擁有駕駛執照的國民，在 8 月份購買了新車。以往美國經濟真正復蘇的時候，擁有車牌而買新車的國民比例，通常達到 8% 以上。因此，有專家推斷，只要美國經濟未有發生重大逆轉，相信國民買車的動力應該可以持續多幾年。

美國經濟似好非好，依然能夠如斯吸引國民購買新車或舊車換新，主要受多個原因影響。首先，美國消費者抱著趕搭低息尾班車的心態，擔心息率即將回升，於是趕快換車或買車。其次，租車的比例亦有上升趨勢；經濟衰退之前，美國國民的平均租車率僅 16%，但今年租車佔新車銷售比例升至 26%。由於租車者定期換新款，自然帶動新車銷情。

另外，電車潮流漸成氣候，單計 8 月份，全美便賣出超過 1 萬輛電車。眾多品牌之中，當以新貴 Tesla 最為觸目。雖然 Tesla 未有交代 8 月份新車銷售的數字，但集團在北美地區過去幾個月平均每月售出 1,500 至 2,000 輛新款電車。至於其他車廠例如日產的 Leaf、通用雪佛蘭的 Volt、豐田 Prius，銷售皆有躍進。

除此以外，美國國民大量家用舊車與 Pickup Trucks（小型載貨卡車）陸續適齡退役，孕育強大的換車需求；適逢美國收車市場活躍，有車一族舊車換新車的意慾自然更強烈。而隨著美國本土油氣產量與日俱增，汽油價格持續回落相信會是大趨勢，這樣亦有助鼓勵國民逐步恢復依賴用車的習慣。

其實，美國新車銷售數據向好，對美國經濟復蘇是一個良性循環。因為美國本土汽車品牌熱賣，意味零售銷售數據造好，國民消費意慾旺盛。車廠方面自然更願意投資增產，招聘增加，工人便有工開，進一步帶動消費。當就業與製造業數據雙雙改善，美國經濟才算得上真正邁向復蘇之路。



王冠一

Sovereign fund like to invest property

Sovereign fund like to invest property
05 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7090-2013-09-05-01-18-16

(Translation version)

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
Published: 05 September 2013

By 10B even 100B US dollar idea national sovereignty funds, because manages is the national hard-earned money, therefore the sovereignty fund investment strategy quite is often conservative, returns are not so much and it is not difficultly to understand naturally.

But, Counts for the Norwegian sovereignty fund by the property scale which the whole world ranks among the best (Government Pension Fund Global, is called GPFG), it is recently became the object which the politician operated. The Norwegian election in namely, petroleum minister publicly indicated suddenly that, disliked the GPFG repayment has not attained a designated standard, the threat must carry on the large-scale reform.

GPFG in the past ten annual mean essence rate of return insufficient 4%, is lower than the government goal.(Nominal Return) weighs by the nominal rate of return, also it is inferior to other national similar fund.The example says, in the past ten year GPFG rates of return 6%, also was lower than Singapore Temasek (the past ten annual means to repay 13%), also was lower than the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (the past 20 annual means to repay 7.6%).

Norwegian Government repays GPFG the somewhat low responsibility, turns over to investigate in the fund investment strategy stresses excessively on the stock and the bond, but neglects the property investment.At present the GPFG property scale has amounted to 7,500 hundred million US dollars (reduced approximately 5.85 1,000,000,000,000 HK dollars), but property property proportion unexpectedly only then 0.9% (only more than 60 hundred million US dollars).

Actually Norwegian Government hoped the GPFG investment property the proportion reaches 5% at least (i.e. about 375 hundred million US dollars), the property inflation progress really too is what a pity slow. Comparatively, The State of Alaska government's sovereignty fund Alaska Permanent Fund, because the property property proportion accounts for 12%, the fund year rate of return reaches 9%, is not really envied the Norway government official already.

Therefore, Norwegian petroleum minister suggested that, the GPFG partition 1/10 funds, voluntarily becomes directly an independent operation the sovereignty fund, but invests the property property specially.If will suggest obtains the realization, the official fund has the property property resultant, could be equal to the original GPFG resultant 10% (approximately 750 hundred million US dollars).But speed estimate which inflates according to the GPFG property, in 2020 the fund overall scale achieved 110B US dollars, have the property property has the opportunity to rise suddenly to 120B to 130B hundred million US dollars.

Is worth paying attention, Norwegian petroleum minister also stressed, hoped GPFG reduces gradually has the bond property proportion, subsequently invests the property, in particular American property.The Norwegian officials indicated that, the fund only can invest the American high quality land sector, and flows the repayment by the high cash business mansion property primarily; Cannot invest as far as possible time according to or the similar constitutive property product.

Because the Norwegian sovereignty fund the ammunition is abundant, but has the condition investment “the admission” high to repay the relatively stable American property long-term specially.When, New York, Chicago and Los Angeles and so on main city, not acupuncture point at the thumb mansion property value, to at present still 2007 or 2008 presents the booklet to let, conforms to the Norwegian sovereignty fund appetite extremely.Overall, the penetration increases to the American property investment, the aggravation property property in the sovereignty fund proportion, belongs to reasonable also the quite unwise strategy.

主權基金 鍾情物業
Written by 王冠一財經頻道

以百億甚至千億美元計的國家主權基金，由於管理的是國民血汗錢，所以主權基金的投資策略往往比較保守，回報不多自然不難理解。

不過，以資產規模計全球數一數二的挪威主權基金 (Government Pension Fund Global，簡稱 GPFG)，近日成為政客開刀的對象。挪威大選在即，石油部長突然公開表示，嫌 GPFG 回報未達標，威脅要進行大規模改革。

GPFG 過去十年平均實質回報率不足 4%，低於政府目標。以名義回報率（Nominal Return）衡量，亦遜於其他國家類似的基金。舉例講，過去十年 GPFG 回報率 6%，既低於新加坡淡馬錫（過去十年平均回報 13%），亦低於阿布札比投資局（過去二十年平均回報 7.6%）。

挪威政府把 GPFG 回報偏低的責任，歸究於基金的投資策略過度側重於股票與債券，而忽略物業投資。目前 GPFG 資產規模已達到 7,500 億美元（折合約 5.85 萬億港元），但物業資產比例竟然只有0.9％（僅六十多億美元）。

其實挪威政府希望 GPFG 投資物業的比重至少達 5%（即大約 375 億美元），可惜資產膨脹進度實在太慢。相比之下，區區阿拉斯加州政府的主權基金 Alaska Permanent Fund，因為物業資產比重佔 12%，基金年回報率達 9%，實在令挪威政府官員羨慕不已。

因此，挪威石油部長建議，直接把 GPFG 分拆十分之一資金，自行成為一隻獨立運作的主權基金，但專門投資物業資產。假如建議得到落實，官方基金持有的物業資產總值，將會相當於原來 GPFG 總值的 10%（約 750 億美元）。而照GPFG資產膨脹的速度估算， 2020 年基金總規模將達到 1.1 萬億美元，持有的物業資產則有機會暴漲至 1,200 億至 1,300 億美元。

值得留意的是，挪威石油部長還強調，希望GPFG逐步降低持有債券資產的比重，繼而多投資物業，尤其是美國物業。挪威官員表明，基金只會投資美國優質地段，並以高現金流回報的商廈物業為主；盡量不會投資次按或類似的結構性物業產品。

挪威主權基金因為彈藥充裕，特別有條件投資「入場費」較高但長遠回報相對穩定的美國物業。況且，紐約、芝加哥及洛杉磯等主要城市，不少商廈物業價值，到目前仍然較 2007 或 2008 年時呈現折讓，極符合挪威主權基金的胃口。總體而言，透過增加對美國物業的投資，加重物業資產在主權基金中的比例，屬於合理且頗為明智的策略。



王冠一財經頻道

The convenient for public buying house

The convenient for public buying house
04 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7085-2013-09-04-05-09-10

(Translation version)

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
Published: 04 September 2013

American house loan mortgage application in the past 17 weeks, some 14 weeks recorded falls, the situation let the human be anxious.The hearsay refers to the Austria Pama to plan the help bankruptcy public figure, or the property by the forced sale American, is obtained the government home loan guarantee, returns to the replacement industry as soon as possible qualifications.

According to the legal regulation, because of breaks for by the forced sale property (Foreclosure) American owner, or already applied for the American who went bankrupt, had to wait for three years only then to be possible to apply for the federation housing administrative bureau (FHA) secured loan to set industry.Partial owners and bankrupt public figure's financial rapid reply state of health, even has ability to supply the building, only obstructs in the legal waiting time is long, the cause is unable to enter the market.The consideration and this, Austria Pama Government plans the revision legal regulation, reduces the waiting time to a year.

Regarding the developer and the realtor, this plan may be timely rains.Because of the mortgage interest rate rise, hinders the American to set at industry the meaning, but the building materials cost is rising, capacity of single living house creates for 8 months to be lowest, the American real estate sale seems to be the stagnant sign. This act hopeful expanded latent buyer population and the maintenance real estate market is active.Regarding American Government, the real estate market stable development, can guarantee the consumer buying power and the economical growth.

In order to exempt the mechanism to abuse, the new plan works out the condition is quite harsh.First, the lender must prove that, the passing application goes bankrupt or the property by the strong beat, is because of uncontrollable factors, for example the unemployment or the income reduce suddenly, as well as the proof at present income has replied normally. The lender in when applies for the new property loan, the consults procedure must be finished completely .

In the past four years, the property approximately is had by the forced sale owner 3.9 M people.Among them, 1 M people already had the qualifications to apply for American Government approximately to guarantee the room loan.In other words, is left over 2,900,000 people will be the new plan target complexes.But, facing the so harsh condition, the public question unavoidably that new plan cannot benefit so many peoples.

On the other hand, Austria Pama Government indicated many times that, will plan the road map which the government fade-out real estate market will intervene, the plan closes Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, will let the mortgage loan market restore the freedom. At present the real estate market only is slightly delay, impatiently gets rid of the involvement, falls “Self-contradictory”.Why Don't fear that the action will fall into making money by using the public funds subsidization individual public figure?

Certainly, regarding a crowd in the past by the not good bank forced sale property American owner, the new plan indeed gives them the preponderancy new life the opportunity.But if goal of the American Government is only the stimulation real estate market, also fears the strength to have falls short.Only depends on strength of the expanded latent buyer quantity, can let the American real estate market recover continually? Is worth thinking deeply.

The American real estate market the reason that has not been able to fly the dragon in the day, sums up to investigate the tree root to lie in the bank contraction to lend money.Because the bank must undertake the lender to repay the home loan incapably the loss, American Banking industry passes four years flower to reach 10,000,000,000 US dollar greatness in the violation government secured loan, in addition formerly involved the large amount fine because of the strong beat behavior, now the bank becomes in the high risk mortgage loan business more conservative.   Federal Reserve's report also promulgates, even if bank mean increase mortgage loan business, also stresses excessively in the high prestige score sets at industry the public figure, instead urgently needs the young people who buys building to live not including.Moreover, the American nearly ten yearly incomes grow not greatly, also what comes the extra purchasing power to set industry? The government solves the basic problem by no means, anxiously promotes the stimulation measure, finally fears the wasted effort.


便利國民 重新上車

美國房貸按揭申請於過去 17 個星期中，有 14 個星期錄得下跌，情況讓人憂慮。傳聞指奧巴馬計劃幫助破產人士，或物業被強制拍賣的美國人，得到政府房貸擔保，盡快回復置業的資格。

根據法例，因斷供而被強制拍賣物業 (Foreclosure) 的美國業主，或者已經申請破產的美國人，必須等三年才可申請聯邦住房管理局 (FHA) 擔保貸款置業。不過，部分業主及破產人士的財政迅速回復健康狀況，甚至有能力供樓，只礙於法定等候時間冗長，致使無法入市。考慮及此，奧巴馬政府計劃修訂法例，把等候時間縮短至一年。

對於發展商及地產商來說，這個計劃可算是及時雨。因為按揭息率上升，妨礙美國人置業意慾，而建材成本在上漲，單戶房開工率創 8 個月最低，美國房地產銷售似有停滯跡象。此舉有望擴大潛在買家人數，保持樓市活躍。對於美國政府來說，樓市穩定發展，才能確保消費力與經濟增長。

為免機制被濫用，新計劃訂立的條件頗為苛刻。首先，貸款人必須證明，過往申請破產或物業被強拍，乃因為不能控制的因素，例如失業或者收入突然減少，以及證明目前的收入已回復正常。貸款人於申請新的物業貸款時，必須完成全部諮詢程序。

過去四年，物業被強制拍賣的業主約有 390 萬人。其中，約 100 萬人已經具資格申請美國政府擔保房貸。換言之，剩下的290萬人將是新計劃的目標群。但是，面對如此苛刻的條件，不免讓人質疑新計劃所惠及的人數並不多。

另一方面，奧巴馬政府多次表明，將規劃政府淡出樓市干預的路線圖，計劃關閉房貸美、房利美，讓按揭貸款市場恢復自由。目前樓市只是稍稍呆滯，就迫不及待出手介入，落下「自打咀巴」之名。難道就不怕落人利用公帑資助個別人士賺錢之口實？

當然，對於一群當年被無良銀行強制拍賣物業的美國業主，新計劃的確給予他們重過新生活的機會。但若美國政府之目的只為刺激樓市，又恐怕力有不逮。單靠擴大潛在買家數量之力，就能讓美國樓市持續復蘇？值得深思。

美國樓市之所以未能飛龍在天，歸根究柢在於銀行緊縮借貸。由於銀行需承擔貸款人無力償還房貸的損失，美國銀行業過去四年花在違約政府擔保貸款已達百億美元之鉅，再加上以往因為強拍行為而涉及巨額罰款，如今銀行在高風險的按揭貸款業務變得更為保守。   聯儲局的報告亦揭示，就算銀行有意增加按揭貸款生意，也過度側重於高信譽分數的準置業人士，反而急需買樓自住的年輕人並不包括在內。況且，美國人近十年收入無大增長，又何來額外的購買力去置業呢？政府並未解決根本問題，就急急推出刺激措施，最終恐怕事倍功半。



王冠一
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/

Great deal of pressure to force executives suicide壓力超大 逼死高管02 September 2013

Great deal of pressure to force executives suicide

02 September 2013

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
 Published: 02 September 2013

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7080-2013-09-02-04-52-56

(Translation version)
Recently, the Swiss have heard obituary, there are two Swiss company executives suspected suicide, first Swisscom, Switzerland's largest phone company's chief executive officer, 49-year-old Carsten Schloter, after that Zurich Insurance's Chief Financial Officer Pierre Wauthier, the latter also subsequent development.

Zurich Insurance chairman Josef Ackermann, even suicidal because of this Pierre Wauthier regarding the resignation with immediate effect. Josef Ackermann said that, Pierre Wauthie family thinks he needs to be held responsible for the tragedy, even if unfounded, to avoid damage to corporate reputation, so decided to resign. Group Chairman, Vice Chairman Tom de Swaan will succeed.

Pierre Wauthier Monday was found dead at home, aged 53 years, police said they were not an indication of a third party involved in the death of Pierre Wauthier, so as suicide. However, the Chairman adhere to subordinates suicide resignation, but more people feel intriguing. Josef Ackermann did not explain the financial details of the charges against the families of prison, and the market will pass Pierre Wauthier left a suicide note. The letter referred to Josef Ackermann order to restore the confidence of investors in the group held a conference call. Media quoted Pierre Wauthier widow, her husband accused President Ackerman constantly pressuring him, asking him to think of ways to make the stock price rise, eventually forcing him to commit suicide.

Events reveal, the Swiss company executives are not that easy to do, just surface is beauty, in fact, many unknown to withstand the pressure. Results Finance Supervisor suicide, resignation of the President, such a high-level changes, so that Zurich Insurance shares fell for several days, a veritable backfire.

Josef Ackermann in office accused of asking too harsh, in fact, took office in March last year, Chief Executive Officer at the beginning, it has been reported that he will provide the company with shocks. Josef Ackermann, who is 65 years old, served as Shell, Siemens, Investor AB and other enterprises directors; previous decade he worked at Deutsche Bank, one of the few experienced a financial crisis still managed to keep their jobs for executives, notoriously demanding.

However, he particular requirement in company was not supported by investors. Because the Group in August just released disappointed results to the market, second-quarter profit fell 18 percent, were worse than other European peers, in the final analysis is the company's over-reliance on the U.S. market operations, while the United States over the past quarter of a natural disaster (such as a tornado ) resulted in increased compensation. In fact, natural disasters are human can not control, so performance should not be unduly linked with the price (but earnings should be linked with the price, hence the price-earnings ratio of the reference value).

There is no doubt that the financial industry is the  large pressure industries, but the problem is even if  large pressure of executives, it still cannot be handled by suicide; Because life is precious, and large enterprise executives are also wage earners one, even if the worst way is " shift to greener pastures" How to achieve work-life balance,it  is needed to learn the art of life.

 

王冠一

壓力超大 逼死高管
2013年9月2日

近日瑞士相繼傳來訃聞，有兩位瑞士公司高層懷疑自殺，先是瑞士最大電話公司 Swisscom 的行政總裁、49歲的 Carsten Schloter，之後就是蘇黎世保險的財務總監沃蒂耶 (Pierre Wauthier)，後者還有後續發展。

蘇黎世保險主席阿克曼 (Josef Ackermann)，竟然因為今次沃蒂耶自殺一事而辭職，即日生效。阿克曼表示，沃蒂耶家人認為他需要為悲劇負上責任，就算毫無根據，為免損害企業聲譽，所以仍決定辭職。集團主席一職，將由副主席斯旺 (Tom de Swaan) 接替。

沃蒂耶星期一被發現倒斃家中，終年 53 歲，警察表示沒跡象顯示有第三方涉及沃蒂耶的死，所以列作自殺案處理。然而，主席堅持為下屬的自殺而辭呈，反而更讓人感到耐人尋味。阿克曼沒解釋財監家屬對其指控的詳情，而市場就傳沃蒂耶留有一封遺書。信中提及阿克曼為了挽回投資者對集團的信心，舉行了電話會議。傳媒引述沃蒂耶遺孀，指控主席阿克曼不斷向其丈夫施壓，要求他想辦法令股價上升，最終逼使他自尋短見。

事件顯露出，瑞士公司高層的確並不易做，只是表面風光，實際上承受許多不為人知的壓力。結果財監自殺、主席辭職、 這樣的高層變動，令蘇黎世保險股價連跌多日，名副其實的弄巧反拙。

阿克曼在任時被指要求太過苛刻，其實去年 3 月走馬上任行政總裁之初，已有報導指他會為公司帶黎震盪。阿克曼今年 65 歲，兼任殼牌 (Shell)、西門子 (Siemens)、Investor AB 等多家企業的董事；之前十年他任職於德意志銀行，是少數經歷了金融海嘯仍成功保留職位的高管，出了名要求高。

然而，有要求的他卻不見得特別受投資者歡迎。因為集團在 8 月剛公布的業績，令市場失望，第二季盈利跌 18%，表現差過其他歐洲同業，歸根究底是公司業務過度倚重美國市場，而美國過去一季發生自然災害（例如龍捲風）致令賠償增加。其實，自然災害是人力所不能駕馭的，所以工作表現不應過分與股價掛?（反而盈利則應該與股價掛?，因而有市盈率之參考價值）。

金融業毋庸置疑是屬於壓力超大的行業，但問題在於高管的壓力即使如何之大，仍不應以自殺方式處理；因為生命寶貴，大型企業的高管都是打工仔一名，正所謂「東家唔打打西家」，如何達致工作生活平衡 (work-life balance)，才是人生要學習的藝術。

王冠一

www.wongsir.com.hk

Bent on engaging in warfare to create a new Situation 一心求戰 開創新局02 September 2013

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
 Published: 02 September 2013

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20130902/columnist/en62_en62.htm
【明報專訊】(Translation version ) A chemical weapons Syria turmoil gives the U.S. a golden opportunity , not only have the opportunity to take the opportunity to break the silence of the international financial markets in the doldrums for a long time , even conditionally create a conducive economic hegemony of the United States rebuild new bureau .

U.S. President Barack Obama is currently affected by two main issues of domestic problems: increasing the budget and debt interest expense ; former are governed by valves make things difficult for many Republicans in Congress , and the latter because the Fed hawks by pressing button in part as soon as possible delisting ( purchase debt reduction scale ) .

The latest U.S. GDP revised figures for the second quarter stronger than expected jobless claims over the past week has also reduced the number of the Fed 's dovish one less excuse to postpone delisting . Private market funds prefer stocks standing above the crowd , speculative gold, silver , oil, also refused to return to the embrace of the U.S. debt . Obama finally be able to artificially push back the debt service means it can only resort to war , by creating panic in the financial markets , so that the U.S. debt repeat the role of safe haven .

U.S. resort to force , in addition to inducing capital flows , the Democrats and Republicans are also expected to break the budget dispute dead end . If the United States claims that Syria's military disciplinary action , evolved into protracted regional conflicts, the U.S. Congress is bound to modify the defense spending budget , when the U.S. military budget could increase rather than decrease ; against Democrats , seemingly lost in the budget battle , in fact, you can turn the Republican Party as a major concession , so that the two sides in the budget issue, to find a breakthrough to break the stalemate . When the two sides met in the budget to reach a consensus on the issue of the first line of the dawn , again raised the bond cap will no longer be so far-fetched .

United States also can take advantage of a military operation , manufacturing economy " selfish " strategy purposes. Middle flames of war , whether it is controlled or not controlled , short-term oil prices will inevitably continue to push for the big fight energy export policy of the U.S. , the price of oil more expensive, but to improve the performance of U.S. exports more favorable .

At the same time , is still dependent on oil imports for many emerging market countries, international oil prices continue to rise , meaning that the cost of increasing national economic growth , continue to erode hard-won economic gains . Coincides with the Fed chanting delisting, international hot money out of emerging markets is massive , India, Brazil and other emerging countries backbone probably also doomed , either face hyperinflation , is the face of sharp currency devaluation , the stock market fell off their feet . Panic scurrying international funding , in the end is still benefiting the U.S. Department , U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds . So then, even if the war is unjust, battle for the United States is still the fight , because war is sometimes reverse the economic doldrums , making favorable situation to themselves the only way .

Of course, if the U.S. military action against Syria , only a limited number of rounds cruise superficial air strikes , the market situation will not break like the development described above . Follows that the United States want to break the Bureau may take the initiative to seek a more far-reaching impact on the market of regional wars.

一心求戰 開創新局

2013年9月2日

【明報專訊】敘利亞一場化武風波，給予美國一次千載難逢的機會，不單有機會借機打破國際金融市場沉寂多時的悶局，甚至有條件開創一盤有利於美國重建經濟霸權的新局。

財政預算收水壓力 困擾奧巴馬
目前美國總統奧巴馬國內主要受兩大問題困擾：財政預算與不斷增加的債息支出；前者受制於共和黨在國會諸多刁難，後者則因為聯儲局受制於部分鷹派勢力施壓要求盡快退市(縮減購債規模)。
資金炒股金油 藉戰爭重振美債
美國最新公布的第二季GDP修訂數字較預期強勁，過去一周申領失業救濟金人數亦減少，聯儲局的鴿派又少了一個推遲退市的藉口。私人市場的資金，寧願選擇高處不勝寒的美股、炒賣金、銀、油，亦堅拒回歸美債懷抱。奧巴馬最終能夠人為把債息壓回去的手段，似乎只能訴諸戰爭，透過在金融市場製造恐慌，讓美債重演資金避風港的角色。
美國訴諸武力，除了誘導資金流向之外，亦有望打破民主共和兩黨爭拗財政預算的死局。假如美國聲稱懲戒敘利亞的軍事行動，演變成曠日持久的地區衝突，美國國會勢必要修改國防支出預算，屆時美國軍費預算可能不減反增；對民主黨來說，表面上在預算上輸了一仗，其實可以反過來視為對共和黨的一次重大讓步，好讓雙方在財政預算問題上，找到一個打破悶局的突破口。當雙方在財政預算問題上見到達成共識的第一線曙光，要再上調發債上限便不再是那麼遙不可及了。
藉擴軍費預算 增發債上限
美國亦可以利用一次軍事行動，製造經濟上「損人利己」的戰略目的。中東點燃戰火，無論是受控的還是不受控的，短期內勢必繼續推高油價，對於大打能源出口政策的美國而言，油價愈貴，反而對改善美國出口表現更加有利。
與此同時，對於眾多仍然依賴石油進口的新興市場國家而言，國際油價持續上升，意味國家經濟增長的成本與日俱增，不斷蠶食得來不易的經濟成果。
挫新興國推高油價 美國得益豐
適逢聯儲局高喊退市，國際游資正大舉撤出新興市場，印度、巴西等新興國中堅分子恐怕亦難逃厄運，要不是面對超級通脹，就是面對貨幣大幅貶值，股市跌個人仰馬翻。恐慌的國際資金亂竄，到頭來受惠的仍是美匯、美股與美債。
所以話，就算戰爭是不義的，仗對美國而言仍是要打，因為戰爭有時是扭轉經濟悶局，製造對己有利形勢的不二法門。
當然，假如美國針對敘利亞的軍事行動，僅止於數輪巡航導彈不痛不癢的空襲，市場形勢斷不會如上所述般發展。照此推論，美國欲要破局，可能會主動尋求一場對市場影響更為深遠的區域戰爭。
王冠一
冠一資產管理 首席策略師
www.wongsir.com.hk