Sovereign fund like to invest property

Sovereign fund like to invest property
05 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7090-2013-09-05-01-18-16

(Translation version)

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
Published: 05 September 2013

By 10B even 100B US dollar idea national sovereignty funds, because manages is the national hard-earned money, therefore the sovereignty fund investment strategy quite is often conservative, returns are not so much and it is not difficultly to understand naturally.

But, Counts for the Norwegian sovereignty fund by the property scale which the whole world ranks among the best (Government Pension Fund Global, is called GPFG), it is recently became the object which the politician operated. The Norwegian election in namely, petroleum minister publicly indicated suddenly that, disliked the GPFG repayment has not attained a designated standard, the threat must carry on the large-scale reform.

GPFG in the past ten annual mean essence rate of return insufficient 4%, is lower than the government goal.(Nominal Return) weighs by the nominal rate of return, also it is inferior to other national similar fund.The example says, in the past ten year GPFG rates of return 6%, also was lower than Singapore Temasek (the past ten annual means to repay 13%), also was lower than the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (the past 20 annual means to repay 7.6%).

Norwegian Government repays GPFG the somewhat low responsibility, turns over to investigate in the fund investment strategy stresses excessively on the stock and the bond, but neglects the property investment.At present the GPFG property scale has amounted to 7,500 hundred million US dollars (reduced approximately 5.85 1,000,000,000,000 HK dollars), but property property proportion unexpectedly only then 0.9% (only more than 60 hundred million US dollars).

Actually Norwegian Government hoped the GPFG investment property the proportion reaches 5% at least (i.e. about 375 hundred million US dollars), the property inflation progress really too is what a pity slow. Comparatively, The State of Alaska government's sovereignty fund Alaska Permanent Fund, because the property property proportion accounts for 12%, the fund year rate of return reaches 9%, is not really envied the Norway government official already.

Therefore, Norwegian petroleum minister suggested that, the GPFG partition 1/10 funds, voluntarily becomes directly an independent operation the sovereignty fund, but invests the property property specially.If will suggest obtains the realization, the official fund has the property property resultant, could be equal to the original GPFG resultant 10% (approximately 750 hundred million US dollars).But speed estimate which inflates according to the GPFG property, in 2020 the fund overall scale achieved 110B US dollars, have the property property has the opportunity to rise suddenly to 120B to 130B hundred million US dollars.

Is worth paying attention, Norwegian petroleum minister also stressed, hoped GPFG reduces gradually has the bond property proportion, subsequently invests the property, in particular American property.The Norwegian officials indicated that, the fund only can invest the American high quality land sector, and flows the repayment by the high cash business mansion property primarily; Cannot invest as far as possible time according to or the similar constitutive property product.

Because the Norwegian sovereignty fund the ammunition is abundant, but has the condition investment “the admission” high to repay the relatively stable American property long-term specially.When, New York, Chicago and Los Angeles and so on main city, not acupuncture point at the thumb mansion property value, to at present still 2007 or 2008 presents the booklet to let, conforms to the Norwegian sovereignty fund appetite extremely.Overall, the penetration increases to the American property investment, the aggravation property property in the sovereignty fund proportion, belongs to reasonable also the quite unwise strategy.

主權基金 鍾情物業
Written by 王冠一財經頻道

以百億甚至千億美元計的國家主權基金，由於管理的是國民血汗錢，所以主權基金的投資策略往往比較保守，回報不多自然不難理解。

不過，以資產規模計全球數一數二的挪威主權基金 (Government Pension Fund Global，簡稱 GPFG)，近日成為政客開刀的對象。挪威大選在即，石油部長突然公開表示，嫌 GPFG 回報未達標，威脅要進行大規模改革。

GPFG 過去十年平均實質回報率不足 4%，低於政府目標。以名義回報率（Nominal Return）衡量，亦遜於其他國家類似的基金。舉例講，過去十年 GPFG 回報率 6%，既低於新加坡淡馬錫（過去十年平均回報 13%），亦低於阿布札比投資局（過去二十年平均回報 7.6%）。

挪威政府把 GPFG 回報偏低的責任，歸究於基金的投資策略過度側重於股票與債券，而忽略物業投資。目前 GPFG 資產規模已達到 7,500 億美元（折合約 5.85 萬億港元），但物業資產比例竟然只有0.9％（僅六十多億美元）。

其實挪威政府希望 GPFG 投資物業的比重至少達 5%（即大約 375 億美元），可惜資產膨脹進度實在太慢。相比之下，區區阿拉斯加州政府的主權基金 Alaska Permanent Fund，因為物業資產比重佔 12%，基金年回報率達 9%，實在令挪威政府官員羨慕不已。

因此，挪威石油部長建議，直接把 GPFG 分拆十分之一資金，自行成為一隻獨立運作的主權基金，但專門投資物業資產。假如建議得到落實，官方基金持有的物業資產總值，將會相當於原來 GPFG 總值的 10%（約 750 億美元）。而照GPFG資產膨脹的速度估算， 2020 年基金總規模將達到 1.1 萬億美元，持有的物業資產則有機會暴漲至 1,200 億至 1,300 億美元。

值得留意的是，挪威石油部長還強調，希望GPFG逐步降低持有債券資產的比重，繼而多投資物業，尤其是美國物業。挪威官員表明，基金只會投資美國優質地段，並以高現金流回報的商廈物業為主；盡量不會投資次按或類似的結構性物業產品。

挪威主權基金因為彈藥充裕，特別有條件投資「入場費」較高但長遠回報相對穩定的美國物業。況且，紐約、芝加哥及洛杉磯等主要城市，不少商廈物業價值，到目前仍然較 2007 或 2008 年時呈現折讓，極符合挪威主權基金的胃口。總體而言，透過增加對美國物業的投資，加重物業資產在主權基金中的比例，屬於合理且頗為明智的策略。



王冠一財經頻道