Postponed delisting attains perfection

Postponed delisting attains perfection

21 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

U.S. Democrats would rather let " White House lights out " ( the federal government suspended ) ,to refuse medical reform bill (Obamacare) issues retracted, the political toppled Republicans and also inadvertently harm the national economy for the Fed to create conditions for delisting justifiably postponed .

Remember Bernanke raised on four criteria for delisting : job market improves , see the momentum of economic recovery , inflation is back to normal , the federal government fiscal problem is solved. Today, even the White House from " lights out " becomes " lights " debt ceiling deadline until early February next year , but in fact that it has not yet met the requirements of the fourth criterion . Furthermore, during the outage of the federal government, a lot of economic data failed to timely payment, it is seriously disrupting the Fed's assessment of the work of the first three criteria . Thus, by the end of October, the Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting on interest rates , Bernanke should be common sense to the grounds of insufficient data , the delisting issue will be postponed to mid-December meeting to discuss .

The "Delisting", in fact, that is, the Fed printing money to reduce monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and MBS ( mortgage-backed notes ) , there are generally considered the consequences of bond interest and mortgage rates could rise sharply .

Recent U.S. interest rates rise , in addition to stir-fried Fed delisting because the concept and, more importantly, financial disputes within the U.S. Congress , has shaken the confidence of many investors in U.S. debt . However, since October 1 " White Lights " starts , investors are basically just focus on selling one month to three -month Treasury bills (T-Bill), as government bonds (T-Bond) market has not seen too much panic , reflecting investors believe that even if the federal government technical default , the time will certainly be quite short , and the investors do not worry about damage of the T-Bond value. U.S. bond market this uncharacteristically, bond yields are generally not as rapidly rising as expected , in fact,  it reflected from  investors that, outside of the U.S. debt , there is no other similar assets to choose from.

Therefore, the U.S. government declared the provisional government budget through postponed after the debt ceiling , then by the ten-year Treasury yield fell to 2.75% 2.55% anxious , as those uncertain factors are temporary disappearance, U.S. dollar assets ( especially the U.S. debt ) is still a large number of customers to join in droves. U.S. Dollar Index reflects the recent trend that investors has convinced that Fed defer delisting until next year and Yellen fastest successor Fed chairman before the official launch .

I have been concerned about, Bernanke has repeatedly reiterated that the Fed will start delisting before the end of this year. Because if he fulfill its commitments , it has only 2 times of meeting on interest rates to choice to announce the delisting (Oct and Dec). It is worth pondering that, if the U.S. debt short-term bond yields continued to drop , so that the internal Fed believes that the private market has sufficient appetite for supporting the U.S. debt , there is no guarantee in December 's meeting on interest rates will be " accidentally " start delisting, small scale purchase of U.S. debt reduction , as Bernanke giving for Obama a last  gift .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/2012-06-14-19-49-09/7204-2013-10-20-10-28-45

押後退市 功德圓滿

美國民主黨寧願讓「白宮熄燈」（聯邦政府暫停運作），亦拒絕就醫改法案 (Obamacare) 議題上退讓半步，一方面在政治上漂亮地扳倒共和黨，另一方面不經意的損害國家經濟，為聯儲局名正言順順延退市創造條件。

記得伯南克就退市提出了四大準則：就業市場好轉、經濟復蘇見動力、通脹回復正常、聯邦政府財政問題解決。如今即使白宮由「熄燈」變「開燈」，債務上限死線延至明年 2 月初，但其實仍未滿足第四項準則的要求。再者，由於聯邦政府停運期間，大量經濟數據未能準時發放，嚴重擾亂了聯儲局評估首三項準則的工作。因此，10 月底聯邦公開市場委員會的議息會議，按常理伯南克應該會以數據不足為由，把退市的問題再順延至 12 月中會議再討論。

所謂退市，其實即是聯儲局每月減少印銀紙購買美國國債與 MBS（按揭抵押票據），後果一般認為是債息與按息可能急劇回升。

近期美國息口上升，除了因為熱炒儲局退市概念之外，更重要的是美國國會內部的財政爭拗，已經動搖了不少美債投資者的信心。不過，自從 10 月 1 日「白宮熄燈」開始，投資者基本上只是集中拋售 1 個月至 3 個月期的國庫票據 (T-Bill)，至於國債 (T-Bond) 市場始終未見太大恐慌，反映投資者相信，即使聯邦政府出現技術性違約，時間肯定會相當短暫，並不擔心會損害到 T-Bond 的價值。美債市場今次一反常態，債息未有如一般人所預期般急升，其實從側面反映出，投資者除了美債以外，根本沒有其他類似的資產可供選擇。

因此在美國政府宣告通過順延臨時政府預算與債務上限後，十年期國債孳息隨即由 2.75% 急回落至 2.55%，顯示即使不確定因素只是暫時消失，美元資產（尤其是美債）仍有大量捧場客蜂擁而至。美匯指數近日的走勢反映，投資者對聯儲局押後退市已深信不疑，甚至認為最快要到明年耶倫接棒聯儲局主席一職之後才正式啟動。

筆者一直在意，伯南克三番四次重申，聯儲局會在今年年底之前啟動退市的言論。因為他要是履行承諾，就只剩下本月及 12 月兩次議息會議選擇。而值得深思的是，假如美債債息短期內持續回落，令聯儲局內部相信，私人市場已具備足夠胃納支撐美債，難保 12 月的議息會議會「意外地」啟動退市，小規模減少購買美債，作為伯南克臨別前為奧巴馬抬的最後一頂轎。



王冠一