European Central Bank, there's no smoke without fire

European Central Bank, there's no smoke without fire

25 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suddenly indicates that they are ready to re-launch the third round of LTRO ( Long Term Refinancing Operation ) to meet the capital needs of the financial markets.

European Central Bank provided unlimited amount of low-interest loans that technically would increase liquidity in the short term, but in the long-term, it will not make the money supply increases. The total over of the past two trillion euros LTRO program has successfully proved that those such loans help European financial system to avoid a credit crunch, European banks have access to cheaper loans, and then they are able to purchase a high interest rate debt interest margins, so it succeeded in lowering the debt interest rate to evade another debt crisis in Europe.

Draghi hinted this again "increase liquidity", suggesting either a credit crunch in Europe's financial system risk, or he is to imply that the European debt bond yields have increasing risk. However, I believe Draghi's main motivation is to meet U.S. Fed delisting to take preventive measures, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier just talked about delisting without action, global bond yields have rallied, pumping height of each type of interest rate, money market immediately tense up, therefore, it is necessary to prepare the European to avoid another credit crunch when the Fed actually occurs delisting.

In addition, European banks have not seriously addressed the problem of "lack of capital", that is the reasons of ECB to always be required to meet the financial market liquidity. Draghi recently attended the European Parliament hearings, once again called on European countries, they should expeditiously implement the Banking Union (Banking Union), the European Central Bank should not count on long-term salvation of all European banks and let ECB takes up all the responsibility,

Moreover, Greece is preparing to reach out and seek for the third tranche loan, so I believe that Greece is also in Draghi focus. Although Draghi said that Greece has no immediate crisis now, but he called on all parties that it should not be expected " three carriages " ( European Central Bank, the EU and IMF) assume all risks in Europe, that's implied that if Greek debt in case if it is really defaulted, it would bound to implicate European banks, it seems that ECB will probably have to rescue of European banks again at that moment.

Mario Draghi has since served European Central Bank President, it has introduced " Alphabet Soup " and other extraordinary measures to stabilize the financial system of the euro area, Not only the main relieve tension of LTRO bank credit, but also asked member states to buy unlimited bonds the OMT ( Reversal financial transactions ), having both comparison, OMT has not been used, but third wave LTRO is getting ready to launched, it reflected the actually euro area banking problems is more urgent than the European debt problem.

For foreign investors, it is worth noting that since the two groups LTRO launched in financial markets, the euro exchange rate is subject to considerable pressure at the early time, but as the market gradually restore confidence in European debt and the EURO, and also those European banks have early repayment to LTRO loans, the EURO began to rebound, It follows that, if the European Central Bank decided to re-launch the third round of LTRO, investors should be prepared that the EURO could once again under pressure.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7140-2013-09-25-06-19-38

歐洲央行 空穴來風

歐洲央行總裁德拉吉，突然表示已隨時準備好再推出第三輪 LTRO（長期再融資操作），以應付金融市場的資金需要。

歐洲央行向銀行提供這種無限量低息貸款，技術上只會短期增加資金流動性，長遠不會令貨幣供應增加，過去兩輪合計逾萬億歐元的 LTRO 計劃已成功證明，這類貸款既能夠避免歐洲金融體系出現信貸緊縮，銀行亦因為獲得便宜的貸款，於是能夠購買高息的歐債賺取息差，結果成功壓低歐債息率，避過了另一次歐債危機。

今次德拉吉又再暗示「放水」，要不是暗示歐洲金融體系有信貸緊縮風險，就是在暗示歐債債息有上升風險。不過，相信德拉吉的主要動機，是為迎接美國聯儲局退市做足預防措施，因為早前聯儲局主席伯南克只是嘴巴說說退市而已，環球債息已告急升，抽高各類利率，令銀根即時緊張起來，因此，歐洲有必要做好準備，避免當儲局真正退市時出現另一次信貸緊縮。

除此以外，歐資銀行一直沒有認真處理缺資問題，亦是歐洲央行時刻需要滿足金融市場流動性的原因之一。德拉吉日前出席歐洲議會聽證會時，再一次呼籲歐洲各國應盡快落實銀行業聯盟 (Banking Union)，而不應該長期指望歐洲央行揹起拯救所有歐資銀行的責任。

另外，希臘據聞正準備伸手尋求第三筆借貸，所以希臘相信也是德拉吉關注的焦點。雖然德拉吉認為，希臘沒有即時危機，但他呼籲各方不應該指望「三頭馬車」（歐洲央行、歐盟與 IMF）承擔所有風險，暗示萬一希債真要「剃頭」，勢必牽連歐洲銀行業，屆時歐洲央行恐怕又要出手拯救了。

德拉吉自從出任歐洲央行總裁以來，便不斷推出「字母湯」等非常手段去穩住歐元區的金融體系，除了主要紓緩銀行信貸緊張的 LTRO 之外，還提出無限量直接購買成員國國債的 OMT（沖銷金融交易）。兩者比較之下，OMT 至今一次未用過，但 LTRO 第三波則已準備就緒，反映歐元區的銀行問題，似乎比歐債問題更加逼切。

對外匯投資者而言，值得留意的是，當初兩批 LTRO 推出金融市場時，歐元匯價初期受到頗大壓力，但隨著市場慢慢恢復對歐債與歐元的信心，與及銀行紛紛提早償還 LTRO 貸款，歐元匯價開始止跌回升。照此推斷，如果歐洲央行決定再推出第三輪 LTRO，投資者應該有心理準備，歐元匯價可能再度受壓。



王冠一