03 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一財經頻道 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
International sugar prices fell for two years , even the U.S. Department of Agriculture has to use public money to subsidize sugar farmers market to avoid sugar farmers bankrupt. Recently there is a change on the sugar price, ICE sugar prices has been quietly rose nearly 8 %, from about 17 cents per pound to 18 cents per pound or more since passed month.
International raw sugar prices rebound, it is partly because of the world's largest supplier action of raw sugar farmers in Brazil, they through that the sugar price is too low, and they have increased supply of raw sugar for the ethanol industry to make reduced supply of raw sugar to support the sugar price; coupled with bad weather earlier in Brazil , it also affected the yield. Moreover, there is a large agricultural traders suspected of hoarding . Currently four global agricultural dealers , Cargill and Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market have individually action , they seems that sugar has promising sign.
In May, Cargill decided to extracted 1.43 million tons of raw sugar maturity from ICE ( Intercontinental Exchange ); while recently Louis Dreyfus also plans to extracted raw sugar 1.49 million tons from ICE. If Louis Dreyfus ultimately successful delivery, this will be the largest physical extraction of raw sugar case in passed 24 years.
In fact , buyer in the agricultural futures markets requesting to extract a large number of goods is not common, because it is easy to suspect to accusations of manipulation of the market price. e.g, hedge fund Armajaro 2010 extracted 240,000 tons of cocoa from LIFFE exchange, the scale is equivalent to 7% of the world 's cocoa supply , Armajaro obvious motive is sharp . The following year Louis Dreyfus also extract almost all of the ICE stretch cotton maturity , it made Chinese mainland's cotton supply and demand tensions. Therefore, the Board of Trade has the upper limit to set up delivery in order to prevent people from hoarding by extracting a large number of goods to manipulate the market price now.
Recent years, Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market has been playing only a seller role, but this time they are large lots goods potential buyers, the situation is relatively rare , naturally more conspicuous. But this time, even Louis Dreyfus extracts a large number of raw sugar , but if they want to push up the price of sugar, it is almost impossible . Because of the 1.49 million tons of raw sugar is only the scale equivalent to only 0.8% of global production , the total value of approximately $ 570 million , it far enough to shake the open market price of raw sugar .
From Louis Dreyfus's action, it is probably due to the estimated price of sugar has bottomed out, in the future , raw sugar supply maybe tension in further, it would be better for rainy day hoarding and waiting for an appropriate time "hanging high to sell " to maximize returns. Since large-scale agricultural traders also started deploying sugar price rebound, it is believed that United States Department of Agriculture will not longer subsidize sugar farmers market .
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7159-2013-10-03-01-07-18
囤積居奇 糖市異樣
國際期糖價格連跌兩年，連美國農業部亦要動用公帑入市補貼糖農，避免糖農破產。直至最近終於見期糖市場有異動，過去一個月ICE期糖價格，原來已靜悄悄升近 8%，由每磅約 17 美仙的近年低位，反彈至目前每磅 18 美仙以上。
國際原糖價格自低位反彈，一方面因為全球最大原糖供應國巴西的糖農，嫌糖價太低，紛紛增加對乙醇工業的原糖供應，藉此令原糖市場供應減少以支撐糖價；加上早前巴西氣候不佳，亦影響產量。其次是大型農產品交易商有囤積之嫌。目前全球四大農產品交易商中，Cargill 與 Louis Dreyfus 在期糖市場皆有動作，似乎有睇好糖前景的跡象。
首先，Cargill 在今年 5 月，決定在 ICE（洲際交易所）一口氣提取 143 萬噸的到期原糖；而 Louis Dreyfus 近日亦計劃在 ICE 提取 149 萬噸到期原糖。假如 Louis Dreyfus 最終成功提貨，將會是二十四年來最大宗原糖實貨提取個案。
其實，買家在農產品期貨市場提取大批實貨的情況並不常見，因為很容易被指有操控市場價格的嫌疑。舉例講，2010 年對沖基金 Armajaro 便一口氣在 LIFFE 交易所提取24萬噸可可 (Cocoa)，規模相當於全球 7% 的可可供應，Armajaro 的動機明顯不過。翌年 Louis Dreyfus 亦一口氣在 ICE 提取幾乎全部到期棉花，一度令中國內地的棉花供求出現緊張。因此，期貨交易所現在皆會設定提貨的上限，避免有人藉提取大批實貨囤積以操控市場價格。
Louis Dreyfus 近年在期糖市場，一直只是擔當賣家角色，今次改為大手買貨，而且是實貨，情況比較罕見，自然更加惹人注目。不過，今次 Louis Dreyfus 即使提取大批原糖，但要推高糖價幾乎沒有可能。因為該 149 萬噸原糖，規模只不過相當於全球產量的 0.8%，總價值亦只不過大約 5.7 億美元，遠遠不足以動搖原糖的公開市場價格。
Louis Dreyfus 的動作，相信是由於估計糖價已經見底，在未來日子，原糖供應可能進一步緊張，倒不如未雨綢繆囤積居奇，等待適當時候再「吊高來賣」賺取最大回報。 既然大型農產品交易商亦開始部署糖價反彈，相信美國農業部不用多久便不用再入市補貼糖農。
王冠一財經頻道
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