09 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7097-2013-09-09-03-39-52
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
The US 10years bond interest was broken through 3% psychological important last week, whether the bond market fund did rush $ to stock market,it is worth paying attention.
Actually, not only the US bond price anxiously fall (i.e. bond interest rate to rise anxiously) recently, but also the European multi-country's national bond price, and, the Germany 10 years bond interest rate has risen to 2%, it is the first time of passed 17 months, also the English 10 years bond interest rate have been risen to 3%, it is the first time of passed 26 months.If the European and US bond interest rate continues together uneven upward, it really caused the worry that it will appear the bond disaster.
Refer to US bond, regardless of the short years note perhaps compares with the long year bond, the price falls recently. Above Thursday (5 Sep) situation, it is serious, the US 5 years bond interest rate rises to 28 month top digits, 10 years bond interest rate also to rise to 26 month top digits, reflected that US bond investor, they are not using the strategy of adopts “sell long buy short” plan, but they had withdraws the US bonds, the sign shows comprehensively and the situation is disquieting.
Because next week Federal Reserve reconsiders the interest rate, the market mainstream opinion recognized this Federal Reserve can certainly start draws back from market; also the strong trend of US$ in exchange market, the various countries' currency exchange rate was bearing, it urges worldwide country central bank to sell the American country bond to support their own currency exchange rate, above all sorts are causes the American country bond to suffer selling factor.
The market has the opinion to believe, since US bond already no longer safe, they would rather move the fund equity to the stock to achieve for higher return. At least most of mutual fund and the retired fund stand on this manner, they are moving the equity to stock market, that's why will the short-term US Stock market be always strength strong, it is the important reason. Althrough those fund continues to do so, it does not represent the stock market is the ideal refuge shelter.
First, the US bond still has its attraction: 10 years bond interest rate has been risen to 3%, many stocks also did not have this attractive repayment, moreover, if the Middle East erupts accidentally go into war, it will have the possibility to initiate the whole world money market to be panic, at that moment the US bond possibly will takes refuge function from danger again, furthermore, if the United States Congress rapidly achieves the mutual recognition on the fiscal budget, US bond confidence will be fast de-emphasis; Under compares, the US stock appears has unbearabl chill in a high position: SP 500 indices, from 2009 until now, accumulation rise close 90%! If the Middle East war happened, it will be an execuse to make a stock market adjustment.
The bond King (Bill Gross) also believed that, the stock market is not sure to be the safest equity, He suggested the US bond investor should invest short time bond or note. The reason is that, as far as possible, even if Federal Reserve quit those QE, they still want to suppress the federation fund interest rate nearby zero level in a certain of time. But it is a pity that, even if Debt King, the investment performance also repeatedly loses accuracy recently, his PIMCO Total Return the Fund property scale is withered nearby 14% within 4 months period, from 292B US dollars shrank to 251B US dollars, it has drained 41B US dollars! Only in August, the fund has been redeemed 8.8B dollars. As for the investor, now the national bond market may be said the crest of wave fire intensity, the investor “hears the debt discoloration”, even if the Debt King's suggestion has its good point, but, the Debt King is natural “sells the debt to approve the debt to be fragrant”, the investor one in turning a deaf ear to.
國債失寵 股票避險？
Written by 王冠一
美國十年期債息，上周突破 3 厘心理關口，到底債市資金湧向股市，值得關注。
其實，近期非但美債價格急跌（即債息急升），連歐洲多國的國債價格亦紛紛下跌，其中，德國十年期債息十七個月以來首度升穿 2%，而英國十年期債息更是二十六個月以來首度升穿 3%。假如歐美債息繼續齊齊向上，實在叫人擔心會出現債災。
美債方面，無論是較短年期或是較長年期的，價格幾乎全線下跌。以上周四情況較為嚴重，當中，美國五年期債息升至二十八個月高位、十年期債息亦升至二十六個月高位，反映美債投資者，並非採取「沽長買短」的策，而是有全面撤出美債跡象，情況令人憂慮。
由於下周聯儲局又再議息，市場主流意見認定今次儲局一定會啟動退市；加上美匯強勢未變，各國貨幣匯價受壓，促使各地央行沽售美債，支撐本國貨幣匯價，以上種種皆是導致美債捱沽的因素。
市場有意見認為，既然國債已經不再安全，倒不如把資金轉投股票爭取較高回報。大量互惠基金以至退休基金抱持這種態度，紛紛入市，這亦是近期美股為何總是抗跌力強的重要原因。不過，資金持續由債市轉投股市，並不代表股市是理想的避難所。
首先，美債仍具吸引力：十年債息升至 3 厘，回報較不少股票還要吸引，況且，中東萬一爆發戰事，有可能引發全球金融市場恐慌，屆時美債便可能回復避險功能，再者，假如美國國會迅速就財政預算達成共識，美債信心將快速復元；相較之下，美股則顯得高處不勝寒：標普 500 指數，自 2009 年至今，累計升幅接近 90%！萬一中東發生戰事，不排除來一次借勢調整。
連債王格羅斯 (Bill Gross) 亦認為，股票未必是最安全的資產，建議債券投資者應該盡量投資短期的債券或票據，理由是即使聯儲局退市，仍要長時間壓住聯邦基金利率在接近零水平。只可惜，諷刺的是即使債王，投資表現亦頻頻失準，他的 PIMCO Total Return Fund 資產規模，過去四個月萎縮 14%，由2920億美元，縮至 2,510 億美元，足足流失了 410 億！僅8月份的贖回金額便達到 88 億。對於投資者來講，現在債市可謂風頭火勢，投資者「聞債色變」，就算債王的建議有其可取之處，不過，債王當然「賣債讚債香」，投資者一於充耳不聞。
王冠一
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