04 September 2013
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7085-2013-09-04-05-09-10
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
Published: 04 September 2013
American house loan mortgage application in the past 17 weeks, some 14 weeks recorded falls, the situation let the human be anxious.The hearsay refers to the Austria Pama to plan the help bankruptcy public figure, or the property by the forced sale American, is obtained the government home loan guarantee, returns to the replacement industry as soon as possible qualifications.
According to the legal regulation, because of breaks for by the forced sale property (Foreclosure) American owner, or already applied for the American who went bankrupt, had to wait for three years only then to be possible to apply for the federation housing administrative bureau (FHA) secured loan to set industry.Partial owners and bankrupt public figure's financial rapid reply state of health, even has ability to supply the building, only obstructs in the legal waiting time is long, the cause is unable to enter the market.The consideration and this, Austria Pama Government plans the revision legal regulation, reduces the waiting time to a year.
Regarding the developer and the realtor, this plan may be timely rains.Because of the mortgage interest rate rise, hinders the American to set at industry the meaning, but the building materials cost is rising, capacity of single living house creates for 8 months to be lowest, the American real estate sale seems to be the stagnant sign. This act hopeful expanded latent buyer population and the maintenance real estate market is active.Regarding American Government, the real estate market stable development, can guarantee the consumer buying power and the economical growth.
In order to exempt the mechanism to abuse, the new plan works out the condition is quite harsh.First, the lender must prove that, the passing application goes bankrupt or the property by the strong beat, is because of uncontrollable factors, for example the unemployment or the income reduce suddenly, as well as the proof at present income has replied normally. The lender in when applies for the new property loan, the consults procedure must be finished completely .
In the past four years, the property approximately is had by the forced sale owner 3.9 M people.Among them, 1 M people already had the qualifications to apply for American Government approximately to guarantee the room loan.In other words, is left over 2,900,000 people will be the new plan target complexes.But, facing the so harsh condition, the public question unavoidably that new plan cannot benefit so many peoples.
On the other hand, Austria Pama Government indicated many times that, will plan the road map which the government fade-out real estate market will intervene, the plan closes Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, will let the mortgage loan market restore the freedom. At present the real estate market only is slightly delay, impatiently gets rid of the involvement, falls “Self-contradictory”.Why Don't fear that the action will fall into making money by using the public funds subsidization individual public figure?
Certainly, regarding a crowd in the past by the not good bank forced sale property American owner, the new plan indeed gives them the preponderancy new life the opportunity.But if goal of the American Government is only the stimulation real estate market, also fears the strength to have falls short.Only depends on strength of the expanded latent buyer quantity, can let the American real estate market recover continually? Is worth thinking deeply.
The American real estate market the reason that has not been able to fly the dragon in the day, sums up to investigate the tree root to lie in the bank contraction to lend money.Because the bank must undertake the lender to repay the home loan incapably the loss, American Banking industry passes four years flower to reach 10,000,000,000 US dollar greatness in the violation government secured loan, in addition formerly involved the large amount fine because of the strong beat behavior, now the bank becomes in the high risk mortgage loan business more conservative. Federal Reserve's report also promulgates, even if bank mean increase mortgage loan business, also stresses excessively in the high prestige score sets at industry the public figure, instead urgently needs the young people who buys building to live not including.Moreover, the American nearly ten yearly incomes grow not greatly, also what comes the extra purchasing power to set industry? The government solves the basic problem by no means, anxiously promotes the stimulation measure, finally fears the wasted effort.
便利國民 重新上車
美國房貸按揭申請於過去 17 個星期中，有 14 個星期錄得下跌，情況讓人憂慮。傳聞指奧巴馬計劃幫助破產人士，或物業被強制拍賣的美國人，得到政府房貸擔保，盡快回復置業的資格。
根據法例，因斷供而被強制拍賣物業 (Foreclosure) 的美國業主，或者已經申請破產的美國人，必須等三年才可申請聯邦住房管理局 (FHA) 擔保貸款置業。不過，部分業主及破產人士的財政迅速回復健康狀況，甚至有能力供樓，只礙於法定等候時間冗長，致使無法入市。考慮及此，奧巴馬政府計劃修訂法例，把等候時間縮短至一年。
對於發展商及地產商來說，這個計劃可算是及時雨。因為按揭息率上升，妨礙美國人置業意慾，而建材成本在上漲，單戶房開工率創 8 個月最低，美國房地產銷售似有停滯跡象。此舉有望擴大潛在買家人數，保持樓市活躍。對於美國政府來說，樓市穩定發展，才能確保消費力與經濟增長。
為免機制被濫用，新計劃訂立的條件頗為苛刻。首先，貸款人必須證明，過往申請破產或物業被強拍，乃因為不能控制的因素，例如失業或者收入突然減少，以及證明目前的收入已回復正常。貸款人於申請新的物業貸款時，必須完成全部諮詢程序。
過去四年，物業被強制拍賣的業主約有 390 萬人。其中，約 100 萬人已經具資格申請美國政府擔保房貸。換言之，剩下的290萬人將是新計劃的目標群。但是，面對如此苛刻的條件，不免讓人質疑新計劃所惠及的人數並不多。
另一方面，奧巴馬政府多次表明，將規劃政府淡出樓市干預的路線圖，計劃關閉房貸美、房利美，讓按揭貸款市場恢復自由。目前樓市只是稍稍呆滯，就迫不及待出手介入，落下「自打咀巴」之名。難道就不怕落人利用公帑資助個別人士賺錢之口實？
當然，對於一群當年被無良銀行強制拍賣物業的美國業主，新計劃的確給予他們重過新生活的機會。但若美國政府之目的只為刺激樓市，又恐怕力有不逮。單靠擴大潛在買家數量之力，就能讓美國樓市持續復蘇？值得深思。
美國樓市之所以未能飛龍在天，歸根究柢在於銀行緊縮借貸。由於銀行需承擔貸款人無力償還房貸的損失，美國銀行業過去四年花在違約政府擔保貸款已達百億美元之鉅，再加上以往因為強拍行為而涉及巨額罰款，如今銀行在高風險的按揭貸款業務變得更為保守。 聯儲局的報告亦揭示，就算銀行有意增加按揭貸款生意，也過度側重於高信譽分數的準置業人士，反而急需買樓自住的年輕人並不包括在內。況且，美國人近十年收入無大增長，又何來額外的購買力去置業呢？政府並未解決根本問題，就急急推出刺激措施，最終恐怕事倍功半。
王冠一
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/
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