18 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
U.S. fiscal predicament finally have a breakthrough in the dead line before Congress temporarily approved budget, as the debt ceiling extension, the three major U.S. stock indices have stimulated last Wednesday more than 1% , the U.S. Dollar index return to 80.79 levels . However, the rally failed to extend trading hours in Asia , seems to be implied.
House and Senate passed the bill in its budget , Congress approved 986 Billion U.S. dollars emergency to January-15 of 2014 , meanwhile, temporarily raise the debt ceiling until February 7 and continue to discuss again. This is only temporarily kick the can down the road and extend frontline of war without nothing!
U.S. government partially closed in the past two weeks , the fourth quarter GDP estimates thus reducing the 0.3 % and there was $ 12 billion evaporated .During this period the federal government had to reduce public spending by 20 billion dollars. Interest rates rise due to short-term debt, those corporate finance costs increased, it caused to reduce their investment and results recruitment inevitable. In Property market ,the government departments have failed to approve mortgage applications , in addition to reducing the mortgage loan application ,but also the joint confidence builders have reduced from builders sentiment fell by the September 57 to October 55 , those can be seen. The proportion of GDP 70% about spending, since civil servants unpaid work stoppage is being undermined.
The U.S. government temporarily restart, it seems sky and clouds are cleared really do ? Although the United States to obtain short-term breathing space , but you can not ignore this defeat Republican , House 87 Republican defections , no major cut welfare spending to stop health care reform fails, there is no guarantee the next time backs against the wall , or reoccurrence of U.S. fiscal difficulties . As long as the unresolved differences between the two parties , the government can longer be lights out early next year . Private sectors ( businesses and consumers ) had decreased investment , recruitment, spending. Corporate earnings will be damaged , the uncertain economic outlook .
Moreover, America's core problem is solved yet ?
How Debt Relief ? No solution ! How over $ 16 trillion national debt reduction ?
Job creation ? No program ! Up to 11.3 M people currently unemployed , one third of them unemployed for more than 6 months. How to create more jobs ?
Worse, the mandatory deficit reduction plan to be implemented ! U.S. government must reduce spending ( scale up to $ 21 billion ) . The Congressional Budget Office estimates , forced segmented cutting red (Sequestration) let job market to be reduced by 80 million jobs next year , worse and worse.
Since the prospects are so uncertain , the Fed will have an excuse to delay delisting. Market expected the Fed may have to wait before considering delisting Chairman Janet Yellen , when the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $ 4.2 trillion . Liabilities is so large, it makes greater confidence in the dollar crisis , it may attract more capital into high-interest assets may (High-Yield Assets), resulting in U.S. debt heavy selling pressure , it will outweigh the benefits. Delay delisting , would equate Bernanke renege ? Fed prestige lie ?
In the current situation, Bernanke's more likely to withdraw small amount from the market at the end of this year,so that long-term U.S. dollar index should strengthen. So, at the end of Wall Street investors should carefully precarious : Please hold the handrail .
http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7201-2013-10-17-17-29-45
財政困局 欲斷難斷
美國財政困局終於在死線前有突破，國會暫時批准財政預算、債務上限延期，刺激周三美股三大指數都升逾 1%，美匯重返 80.79 水平。不過，升勢未能於亞洲交易時段延續，似乎有所暗示。
參眾兩院通過的議案中，財政預算方面，國會批准 9,860 億美元應急至 1 月 15 日，同時，暫時提高債務上限，延至 2 月 7 日再談。這不過是把皮球暫時踢開 (Kick the can down the road)，延長戰線罷了！
美國政府於過去兩星期局部關閉，估計第四季 GDP 因而減少了 0.3 個百分點，蒸發了 120 億美元。這段期間聯邦政府公共開支減少了 200 億美元。因短債息升，企業融資成本增加，縮減投資、招聘在所難免。樓市方面，政府部門未能審批按揭申請，除按揭貸款申請減少外，連帶建築商信心都降低了，從建築商情緒由 9 月的 57 降至 10 月的 55，可見一斑。而佔 GDP 近七成比重的消費一環，亦因公務員無薪停工而被削弱。
美國政府暫時重啟，真的是撥開雲霧見青天嗎？美國雖然獲得短期喘息空間，但不能忽略共和黨今次慘敗，眾議院 87 名共和黨人倒戈、福利開支無大削、阻止醫改失敗，難保下回背水一戰，美國財政或再陷困。只要兩黨分歧未解決，政府明年初都可能再熄燈。私人環節（企業及消費者）只好少投資、招聘、消費。企業盈利必受損，經濟前景不明朗。
再者，美國的核心問題解決了嗎？
如何減債？無解決！逾 16 萬億美元國債怎減？
創造就業？無方案！目前失業人數高達 1,130 萬人，當中三分之一失業時間超過 6 個月。如何增加就業職位？
更糟的是，強制削赤計劃即將實施！美國政府必須減少開支（規模達 210 億美元）。國會預算辦公室估計，強制分段削赤 (Sequestration) 將使明年就業市場減少 80 萬個職位，雪上加霜。
既然前景如此不明朗，聯儲局便有藉口延遲退市。市場料聯儲局可能要待耶倫任主席後才考慮退市，那時聯儲局資產負債表已膨脹到 4.2 萬億美元。負債這麼大，美元信心危機更大，可能吸引更多資金可能走入高息資產 (High-Yield Assets)，造成美債沽壓沉重，得不償失。延遲退市，豈不等同伯南克食言？儲局威信何在？
以目前情況來看，伯南克堅持年末小額退市的可能性更大，美匯長遠應走強。所以，美股投資者應小心年末風雨飄搖：請緊握扶手。
王冠一
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