Bent on engaging in warfare to create a new Situation 一心求戰 開創新局02 September 2013

Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)
 Published: 02 September 2013

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/finance/20130902/columnist/en62_en62.htm
【明報專訊】(Translation version ) A chemical weapons Syria turmoil gives the U.S. a golden opportunity , not only have the opportunity to take the opportunity to break the silence of the international financial markets in the doldrums for a long time , even conditionally create a conducive economic hegemony of the United States rebuild new bureau .

U.S. President Barack Obama is currently affected by two main issues of domestic problems: increasing the budget and debt interest expense ; former are governed by valves make things difficult for many Republicans in Congress , and the latter because the Fed hawks by pressing button in part as soon as possible delisting ( purchase debt reduction scale ) .

The latest U.S. GDP revised figures for the second quarter stronger than expected jobless claims over the past week has also reduced the number of the Fed 's dovish one less excuse to postpone delisting . Private market funds prefer stocks standing above the crowd , speculative gold, silver , oil, also refused to return to the embrace of the U.S. debt . Obama finally be able to artificially push back the debt service means it can only resort to war , by creating panic in the financial markets , so that the U.S. debt repeat the role of safe haven .

U.S. resort to force , in addition to inducing capital flows , the Democrats and Republicans are also expected to break the budget dispute dead end . If the United States claims that Syria's military disciplinary action , evolved into protracted regional conflicts, the U.S. Congress is bound to modify the defense spending budget , when the U.S. military budget could increase rather than decrease ; against Democrats , seemingly lost in the budget battle , in fact, you can turn the Republican Party as a major concession , so that the two sides in the budget issue, to find a breakthrough to break the stalemate . When the two sides met in the budget to reach a consensus on the issue of the first line of the dawn , again raised the bond cap will no longer be so far-fetched .

United States also can take advantage of a military operation , manufacturing economy " selfish " strategy purposes. Middle flames of war , whether it is controlled or not controlled , short-term oil prices will inevitably continue to push for the big fight energy export policy of the U.S. , the price of oil more expensive, but to improve the performance of U.S. exports more favorable .

At the same time , is still dependent on oil imports for many emerging market countries, international oil prices continue to rise , meaning that the cost of increasing national economic growth , continue to erode hard-won economic gains . Coincides with the Fed chanting delisting, international hot money out of emerging markets is massive , India, Brazil and other emerging countries backbone probably also doomed , either face hyperinflation , is the face of sharp currency devaluation , the stock market fell off their feet . Panic scurrying international funding , in the end is still benefiting the U.S. Department , U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds . So then, even if the war is unjust, battle for the United States is still the fight , because war is sometimes reverse the economic doldrums , making favorable situation to themselves the only way .

Of course, if the U.S. military action against Syria , only a limited number of rounds cruise superficial air strikes , the market situation will not break like the development described above . Follows that the United States want to break the Bureau may take the initiative to seek a more far-reaching impact on the market of regional wars.

一心求戰 開創新局

2013年9月2日

【明報專訊】敘利亞一場化武風波，給予美國一次千載難逢的機會，不單有機會借機打破國際金融市場沉寂多時的悶局，甚至有條件開創一盤有利於美國重建經濟霸權的新局。

財政預算收水壓力 困擾奧巴馬
目前美國總統奧巴馬國內主要受兩大問題困擾：財政預算與不斷增加的債息支出；前者受制於共和黨在國會諸多刁難，後者則因為聯儲局受制於部分鷹派勢力施壓要求盡快退市(縮減購債規模)。
資金炒股金油 藉戰爭重振美債
美國最新公布的第二季GDP修訂數字較預期強勁，過去一周申領失業救濟金人數亦減少，聯儲局的鴿派又少了一個推遲退市的藉口。私人市場的資金，寧願選擇高處不勝寒的美股、炒賣金、銀、油，亦堅拒回歸美債懷抱。奧巴馬最終能夠人為把債息壓回去的手段，似乎只能訴諸戰爭，透過在金融市場製造恐慌，讓美債重演資金避風港的角色。
美國訴諸武力，除了誘導資金流向之外，亦有望打破民主共和兩黨爭拗財政預算的死局。假如美國聲稱懲戒敘利亞的軍事行動，演變成曠日持久的地區衝突，美國國會勢必要修改國防支出預算，屆時美國軍費預算可能不減反增；對民主黨來說，表面上在預算上輸了一仗，其實可以反過來視為對共和黨的一次重大讓步，好讓雙方在財政預算問題上，找到一個打破悶局的突破口。當雙方在財政預算問題上見到達成共識的第一線曙光，要再上調發債上限便不再是那麼遙不可及了。
藉擴軍費預算 增發債上限
美國亦可以利用一次軍事行動，製造經濟上「損人利己」的戰略目的。中東點燃戰火，無論是受控的還是不受控的，短期內勢必繼續推高油價，對於大打能源出口政策的美國而言，油價愈貴，反而對改善美國出口表現更加有利。
與此同時，對於眾多仍然依賴石油進口的新興市場國家而言，國際油價持續上升，意味國家經濟增長的成本與日俱增，不斷蠶食得來不易的經濟成果。
挫新興國推高油價 美國得益豐
適逢聯儲局高喊退市，國際游資正大舉撤出新興市場，印度、巴西等新興國中堅分子恐怕亦難逃厄運，要不是面對超級通脹，就是面對貨幣大幅貶值，股市跌個人仰馬翻。恐慌的國際資金亂竄，到頭來受惠的仍是美匯、美股與美債。
所以話，就算戰爭是不義的，仗對美國而言仍是要打，因為戰爭有時是扭轉經濟悶局，製造對己有利形勢的不二法門。
當然，假如美國針對敘利亞的軍事行動，僅止於數輪巡航導彈不痛不癢的空襲，市場形勢斷不會如上所述般發展。照此推論，美國欲要破局，可能會主動尋求一場對市場影響更為深遠的區域戰爭。
王冠一
冠一資產管理 首席策略師
www.wongsir.com.hk