Pooling resources to encourage innovation

Pooling resources to encourage innovation

25 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

In terms of Hong Kong investors , IPO , of course as bigger as possible, because the opportunities for small investors in the ballot is relatively larger, and also many big ibank to support the stock price, the opportunities for small investors to make money in the ballot should more large. However, this culture of IPO bigger the better , in fact, it is expense of the healthy development of SMEs . For SMEs, the traditional IPO market continues to be driven out of the phenomenon , the United States believes that it will soon be launching a new corporate financing.

Twenty years ago, the New York-listed IPO funds are about scale of 5 million to $ 10 million, it were quite common. However, since the introduction of electronic trading stocks , the blind pursuit of stockbrokers started trading volume , the market 's attention has only concentrated on large IPO activity , so that smaller IPO relatively isolated , the result is a whole number of IPO shrinking . Each year about 500 from the previous IPO, reduced to the current annual average of only about 130 ; For IPO funds raised $ 50 million less than the ratio of the number from the previous accounted for 80% of IPO , now shrunk to only 20% . This IPO unhealthy , to drive away a lot of the development of small and medium enterprises who need capital ; additional, bank was doing too meager profits and they simply do not want to SME financing business. Some experts estimate that the current U.S. annual average of only about 30 tiny IPO.

The SEC is planning to allow SMEs to public placement, the insider called it as Crowdfunding, and it is relaxed regulatory requirements than traditional IPO : Financing companies must register via the online platform of Offer Shares, and the annual fund-raising maximum aggregate $ 1M ; it also limited the amount of each annual investment level , while corporate executives must be declared with the financial situation ; non-professional investors, although you can subscribe for shares, but the share is entitled to all investors year lock-up period .

Such Crowdfunding financing market , although convenient SME financing, but administrative costs ( such as processing document disclosure , hiring online trading platform , annual reports , etc. ) pressure which relative to the size of funds raised, it is very large in terms of the ratio, and it may scare of many companies . Moreover, the average investor is concerned , Crowdfunding may have little protection : first, because of the low liquidity of these shares , small investors easy to retreat into difficult to sell shares to cash, therefore , it must be psychologically prepared small investors such shares may take a long hold ; on the other hand, it is needed to worry about market manipulation behavior, because the scale of capital and enterprise funds raised are smaller, low liquidity of the Shares , the stock likely to be brandished from large dealer to make shares price up and down.

Crowdfunding emerges let the U.S. Administration's intention seems to outside the traditional stock market, specifically for SMEs to establish another set of stock market trading of the Shares , the situation with the Hong Kong GEM concept quite alike . Such financing platform can at least encourage SMEs more innovative developments on the real economic recovery and job creation plays a major role, it is worthy of praise .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7224-2013-10-25-09-47-35

對香港股民來講，IPO 當然愈大愈好，因為從小投資者中籤機會相對較大，大行護盤更落力，中籤者賺錢機會自然大好多。不過，這種 IPO 愈大愈好的風氣，其實犧牲了中小企的良性發展。針對中小企持續被趕出傳統 IPO 市場的現象，美國相信不久將會推出一種全新的企業融資方式。

二十年前，在紐約上市的IPO集資金額，規模 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元者相當普遍。不過，自從美股引入電子化交易後，股票經紀開始盲目追求交投量，市場的注意力亦只集中在大型 IPO 活動上，令較小型的 IPO 備受冷落，結果是整體 IPO 數量不斷萎縮。由以前每年約有 500 宗 IPO，減少至目前每年平均只有約 130 宗；至於 IPO 集資額少於 5,000 萬美元的比例，則由以前佔全年 IPO 數目的 80%，萎縮至目前只佔 20%。這種 IPO 歪風，趕絕了許多需要資金發展的中小型企業；加上銀行嫌利潤微薄，根本不想做中小企融資生意。有專家估計，目前美國每年平均只有約 30 宗蚊型 IPO。

美國證交會正計劃容許中小企公開配股集資，行內稱作 Crowdfunding（譯：集液成裘式融資），且監管要求較傳統 IPO 寬鬆：集資企業必須透過註冊的網上平台發售股份，每年集資總額上限 100 萬美元；又限制每名高層每年投資金額，而企業與高層必須申報財務狀況；非專業投資者雖然也可以認購股份，但所有投資者的股份皆有一年禁售期限制。

這類 Crowdfunding 融資市場，雖然方便中小企融資，但行政費用（例如處理文件披露、聘用網上交易平台、年報等）的負擔，相對於集資金額的規模來講，比例顯得很大，可能會嚇怕不少企業。 況且，對一般投資者來講，Crowdfunding 可能無甚保障：一方面由於這類股份的流通性低，小投資者易進難退，賣股套現並不容易，因此，小投資者要有心理準備，這類股份可能需要長時間持有；另一方面亦需要擔心造市行為，因為集資金額與企業資本規模都較細，股份流通性低，股價容易被大戶或莊家舞弄股低。

Crowdfunding 的出現，似乎反映美國當局有意在傳統股票市場之外，另外成立一個專為中小企股份買賣而設的股市，情況跟香港的創業板理念頗相象。這種融資平台至少可以鼓勵中小企更勇於創新發展，對實體經濟復蘇、創造就業起著重大作用，值得推崇。



王冠一

Postponed delisting attains perfection

Postponed delisting attains perfection

21 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

U.S. Democrats would rather let " White House lights out " ( the federal government suspended ) ,to refuse medical reform bill (Obamacare) issues retracted, the political toppled Republicans and also inadvertently harm the national economy for the Fed to create conditions for delisting justifiably postponed .

Remember Bernanke raised on four criteria for delisting : job market improves , see the momentum of economic recovery , inflation is back to normal , the federal government fiscal problem is solved. Today, even the White House from " lights out " becomes " lights " debt ceiling deadline until early February next year , but in fact that it has not yet met the requirements of the fourth criterion . Furthermore, during the outage of the federal government, a lot of economic data failed to timely payment, it is seriously disrupting the Fed's assessment of the work of the first three criteria . Thus, by the end of October, the Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting on interest rates , Bernanke should be common sense to the grounds of insufficient data , the delisting issue will be postponed to mid-December meeting to discuss .

The "Delisting", in fact, that is, the Fed printing money to reduce monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and MBS ( mortgage-backed notes ) , there are generally considered the consequences of bond interest and mortgage rates could rise sharply .

Recent U.S. interest rates rise , in addition to stir-fried Fed delisting because the concept and, more importantly, financial disputes within the U.S. Congress , has shaken the confidence of many investors in U.S. debt . However, since October 1 " White Lights " starts , investors are basically just focus on selling one month to three -month Treasury bills (T-Bill), as government bonds (T-Bond) market has not seen too much panic , reflecting investors believe that even if the federal government technical default , the time will certainly be quite short , and the investors do not worry about damage of the T-Bond value. U.S. bond market this uncharacteristically, bond yields are generally not as rapidly rising as expected , in fact,  it reflected from  investors that, outside of the U.S. debt , there is no other similar assets to choose from.

Therefore, the U.S. government declared the provisional government budget through postponed after the debt ceiling , then by the ten-year Treasury yield fell to 2.75% 2.55% anxious , as those uncertain factors are temporary disappearance, U.S. dollar assets ( especially the U.S. debt ) is still a large number of customers to join in droves. U.S. Dollar Index reflects the recent trend that investors has convinced that Fed defer delisting until next year and Yellen fastest successor Fed chairman before the official launch .

I have been concerned about, Bernanke has repeatedly reiterated that the Fed will start delisting before the end of this year. Because if he fulfill its commitments , it has only 2 times of meeting on interest rates to choice to announce the delisting (Oct and Dec). It is worth pondering that, if the U.S. debt short-term bond yields continued to drop , so that the internal Fed believes that the private market has sufficient appetite for supporting the U.S. debt , there is no guarantee in December 's meeting on interest rates will be " accidentally " start delisting, small scale purchase of U.S. debt reduction , as Bernanke giving for Obama a last  gift .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/2012-06-14-19-49-09/7204-2013-10-20-10-28-45

押後退市 功德圓滿

美國民主黨寧願讓「白宮熄燈」（聯邦政府暫停運作），亦拒絕就醫改法案 (Obamacare) 議題上退讓半步，一方面在政治上漂亮地扳倒共和黨，另一方面不經意的損害國家經濟，為聯儲局名正言順順延退市創造條件。

記得伯南克就退市提出了四大準則：就業市場好轉、經濟復蘇見動力、通脹回復正常、聯邦政府財政問題解決。如今即使白宮由「熄燈」變「開燈」，債務上限死線延至明年 2 月初，但其實仍未滿足第四項準則的要求。再者，由於聯邦政府停運期間，大量經濟數據未能準時發放，嚴重擾亂了聯儲局評估首三項準則的工作。因此，10 月底聯邦公開市場委員會的議息會議，按常理伯南克應該會以數據不足為由，把退市的問題再順延至 12 月中會議再討論。

所謂退市，其實即是聯儲局每月減少印銀紙購買美國國債與 MBS（按揭抵押票據），後果一般認為是債息與按息可能急劇回升。

近期美國息口上升，除了因為熱炒儲局退市概念之外，更重要的是美國國會內部的財政爭拗，已經動搖了不少美債投資者的信心。不過，自從 10 月 1 日「白宮熄燈」開始，投資者基本上只是集中拋售 1 個月至 3 個月期的國庫票據 (T-Bill)，至於國債 (T-Bond) 市場始終未見太大恐慌，反映投資者相信，即使聯邦政府出現技術性違約，時間肯定會相當短暫，並不擔心會損害到 T-Bond 的價值。美債市場今次一反常態，債息未有如一般人所預期般急升，其實從側面反映出，投資者除了美債以外，根本沒有其他類似的資產可供選擇。

因此在美國政府宣告通過順延臨時政府預算與債務上限後，十年期國債孳息隨即由 2.75% 急回落至 2.55%，顯示即使不確定因素只是暫時消失，美元資產（尤其是美債）仍有大量捧場客蜂擁而至。美匯指數近日的走勢反映，投資者對聯儲局押後退市已深信不疑，甚至認為最快要到明年耶倫接棒聯儲局主席一職之後才正式啟動。

筆者一直在意，伯南克三番四次重申，聯儲局會在今年年底之前啟動退市的言論。因為他要是履行承諾，就只剩下本月及 12 月兩次議息會議選擇。而值得深思的是，假如美債債息短期內持續回落，令聯儲局內部相信，私人市場已具備足夠胃納支撐美債，難保 12 月的議息會議會「意外地」啟動退市，小規模減少購買美債，作為伯南克臨別前為奧巴馬抬的最後一頂轎。



王冠一

US Financial difficulties too hard to solve

US Financial difficulties too hard to solve

18 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

U.S. fiscal predicament finally have a breakthrough in the dead line before Congress temporarily approved budget, as the debt ceiling extension, the three major U.S. stock indices have stimulated last Wednesday more than 1% , the U.S. Dollar index return to 80.79 levels . However, the rally failed to extend trading hours in Asia , seems to be implied.

House and Senate passed the bill in its budget , Congress approved 986 Billion U.S. dollars emergency to January-15 of 2014 , meanwhile, temporarily raise the debt ceiling until February 7 and continue to discuss again. This is only temporarily kick the can down the road and  extend frontline of war without nothing!

U.S. government partially closed in the past two weeks , the fourth quarter GDP estimates thus reducing the 0.3 % and there was $ 12 billion evaporated .During this period the federal government had to reduce public spending by 20 billion dollars. Interest rates rise due to short-term debt, those corporate finance costs increased, it caused to reduce their investment and results recruitment inevitable. In Property market ,the government departments have failed to approve mortgage applications , in addition to reducing the mortgage loan application ,but also the joint confidence builders have reduced from builders sentiment fell by the September 57 to October 55 , those can be seen. The proportion of GDP 70% about spending, since civil servants unpaid work stoppage is being undermined.

The U.S. government temporarily restart, it seems sky and clouds are cleared really do ? Although the United States to obtain short-term breathing space , but you can not ignore this defeat Republican , House 87 Republican defections , no major cut welfare spending to stop health care reform fails, there is no guarantee the next time backs against the wall , or reoccurrence of U.S. fiscal difficulties . As long as the unresolved differences between the two parties , the government can longer be lights out early next year . Private sectors ( businesses and consumers ) had decreased investment , recruitment, spending. Corporate earnings will be damaged , the uncertain economic outlook .

Moreover, America's core problem is solved yet ?

How Debt Relief ? No solution ! How over $ 16 trillion national debt reduction ?

Job creation ? No program ! Up to 11.3 M people currently unemployed , one third of them unemployed for more than 6 months. How to create more jobs ?

Worse, the mandatory deficit reduction plan to be implemented ! U.S. government must reduce spending ( scale up to $ 21 billion ) . The Congressional Budget Office estimates , forced segmented cutting red (Sequestration) let job market to be reduced by 80 million jobs next year , worse and worse.

Since the prospects are so uncertain , the Fed will have an excuse to delay delisting. Market expected the Fed may have to wait before considering delisting Chairman Janet Yellen , when the Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $ 4.2 trillion . Liabilities is so large, it makes greater confidence in the dollar crisis , it may attract more capital into high-interest assets may (High-Yield Assets), resulting in U.S. debt heavy selling pressure , it will outweigh the benefits. Delay delisting , would equate Bernanke renege ? Fed prestige lie ?

In the current situation, Bernanke's more likely to withdraw small amount from the market at the end of this year,so that long-term U.S. dollar index should strengthen. So, at the end of Wall Street investors should carefully precarious : Please hold the handrail .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7201-2013-10-17-17-29-45

財政困局 欲斷難斷

美國財政困局終於在死線前有突破，國會暫時批准財政預算、債務上限延期，刺激周三美股三大指數都升逾 1%，美匯重返 80.79 水平。不過，升勢未能於亞洲交易時段延續，似乎有所暗示。

參眾兩院通過的議案中，財政預算方面，國會批准 9,860 億美元應急至 1 月 15 日，同時，暫時提高債務上限，延至 2 月 7 日再談。這不過是把皮球暫時踢開 (Kick the can down the road)，延長戰線罷了！

美國政府於過去兩星期局部關閉，估計第四季 GDP 因而減少了 0.3 個百分點，蒸發了 120 億美元。這段期間聯邦政府公共開支減少了 200 億美元。因短債息升，企業融資成本增加，縮減投資、招聘在所難免。樓市方面，政府部門未能審批按揭申請，除按揭貸款申請減少外，連帶建築商信心都降低了，從建築商情緒由 9 月的 57 降至 10 月的 55，可見一斑。而佔 GDP 近七成比重的消費一環，亦因公務員無薪停工而被削弱。

美國政府暫時重啟，真的是撥開雲霧見青天嗎？美國雖然獲得短期喘息空間，但不能忽略共和黨今次慘敗，眾議院 87 名共和黨人倒戈、福利開支無大削、阻止醫改失敗，難保下回背水一戰，美國財政或再陷困。只要兩黨分歧未解決，政府明年初都可能再熄燈。私人環節（企業及消費者）只好少投資、招聘、消費。企業盈利必受損，經濟前景不明朗。

再者，美國的核心問題解決了嗎？

如何減債？無解決！逾 16 萬億美元國債怎減？

創造就業？無方案！目前失業人數高達 1,130 萬人，當中三分之一失業時間超過 6 個月。如何增加就業職位？

更糟的是，強制削赤計劃即將實施！美國政府必須減少開支（規模達 210 億美元）。國會預算辦公室估計，強制分段削赤 (Sequestration) 將使明年就業市場減少 80 萬個職位，雪上加霜。

既然前景如此不明朗，聯儲局便有藉口延遲退市。市場料聯儲局可能要待耶倫任主席後才考慮退市，那時聯儲局資產負債表已膨脹到 4.2 萬億美元。負債這麼大，美元信心危機更大，可能吸引更多資金可能走入高息資產 (High-Yield Assets)，造成美債沽壓沉重，得不償失。延遲退市，豈不等同伯南克食言？儲局威信何在？

以目前情況來看，伯南克堅持年末小額退市的可能性更大，美匯長遠應走強。所以，美股投資者應小心年末風雨飄搖：請緊握扶手。



王冠一

Privacy profit, gray area

Privacy profit, gray area

15 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Dot com companies involved in the advertising industry and then offer new initiatives . I still remember that half a year ago , the famous photo-sharing app Instagram suddenly modify user privacy protocol to the company in the future and even the right to user's photo phase portrait, as an advertising photo sold to make money, the arrangement immediately aroused great resentment users that Instagram flagrant violation of the copyright , and user indignant results Instagram concessions recover those sell programs.

This use of customer information advertising revenue business model has become increasingly common in the dot com industry , recently, even Google has started to encroach that. Google intends to use its Google Plus, YouTube and other platforms to identify more advertising opportunities , the specific approach is: If a user on Google's platform , for certain goods or services proposed evaluation (Ratings) as well as comment (Comments), when the related goods or services in Google paid advertising , then the proposed evaluations or reviews of the user on Google Plus account link all the other friends , they will receive relevant ads. , and even wrote a review of the user's personal photos, it may also appear in the ad being to enhance intimacy and persuasive advertising . The arrangement will come into effect on November 11 .

For example say , if someone in Google Plus Blog on Samsung Galaxy Gear with positive comments, when Samsung Google advertisement about the product , those persons in Google Plus friends , will also be received a evaluation of the person portrait product advertising and even individuals .

This arrangement makes a lot of people find objectionable , because it is making a goods or services for no reason to do endorsements, but Google or advertisers does not offer any reimbursement (Consideration). Google has recently started asking Google Plus users authorize the arrangements. But this authorization, in fact, is not appropriate , unless future Google promised to use users' personal information for advertising purposes before they get the user to confirm the approval, and also sharing arrangement , otherwise, the user should not be free to grant Google the right to use of personal data .

In fact, in addition to Instagram and Google , Facebook also tried to launched similar advertising model earlier ( known as Sponsored Stories): Facebook was using the user information for an ads. click " Like " number , as the assessment of how much to charge advertisers standards, but the user did not choose this arrangement right . Results that all against users in a class action in favor and Facebook needs U.S. $ 20 million compensation .

Internet users who is sharing information and personal opinion, they should be careful that their information are not to be easily for dot com companies to use their personal information to make money.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7159-2013-10-03-01-07-18

科網公司涉足廣告業再獻新猷。猶記得大半年前，著名照片分享應用程式 Instagram 突然修改用戶私隱協議，以便公司日後有權把用戶的照片甚至相中肖像，作為廣告照片出售賺錢，有關安排立即惹來用戶極大反感，認為 Instagram 公然侵犯版權，最終因為群情洶湧，結果 Instagram 讓步，收回賣相計劃。

這種利用客戶資訊來找廣告收入的經營模式，在科網界愈來愈普遍，最近連 Google 亦開始染指。Google 打算利用旗下 Google Plus、YouTube 等平台物色更多廣告機會，具體做法是：假如有用戶在 Google 的平台，對某些商品或服務提出評價 (Ratings) 以至評語 (Comments)，當相關商品或服務在 Google 付費登廣告時，那麼提出過評價或評語的用戶，他們在 Google Plus 帳戶連結下的所有其他好友，將會全部收到相關廣告，甚至連寫過評語的用戶個人照片，也可能出現在廣告之中，以加強廣告的親切感與說服力。有關安排，將會自 11 月 11 日起生效。

舉例講，假如某人在 Google Plus 網誌上，正面評價過三星 Galaxy Gear 該款產品，日後當三星在 Google 登有關於該產品的廣告時，該人士在 Google Plus 的好友，就會全部收到有該人評價甚至個人肖像的產品廣告。

這種安排令不少人覺得反感，因為無緣無故為某商品或服務做了代言，但 Google 或廣告商竟然對當時人完全沒有提供任何償付 (Consideration)。Google 近日已開始要求 Google Plus 用戶，授權有關安排。但這種要求其實並不恰當，除非日後 Google 承諾日後使用用戶個人資訊作廣告用途之前，每次都先得到用戶確認批准，而且有分帳安排，否則用戶不應隨意授權 Google 使用個人資料的權利。

事實上，除了 Instagram 與 Google 之外，早前 Facebook 也試過推行類似的廣告模式（稱為 Sponsored Stories）：Facebook利用用戶對某廣告資訊按「Like」的數量，作為對廣告商收費多少的評估準則，但用戶對此安排完全沒有選擇的權利。結果反對的用戶在集體訴訟中勝訴，最終 Facebook 需要賠償 2,000 萬美元。

互聯網使用者在網上分享資訊與個人意見時，宜小心別輕易被科網公司利用個人資訊來賺錢。



王冠一

Hoarding abnormal sugar market

Hoarding abnormal sugar market

03 October 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一財經頻道 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

International sugar prices fell for two years , even the U.S. Department of Agriculture has to use public money to subsidize sugar farmers market to avoid sugar farmers bankrupt. Recently  there is a change on the sugar price,  ICE sugar prices has been quietly rose nearly 8 %, from about 17 cents per pound to 18 cents per pound or more since passed month.

International raw sugar prices rebound, it is partly because of the world's largest supplier action of raw sugar farmers in Brazil, they through that the sugar price is too low, and they have increased supply of raw sugar for the ethanol industry to make reduced supply of raw sugar to support the sugar price; coupled with bad weather earlier in Brazil , it also affected the yield. Moreover, there is a large agricultural traders suspected of hoarding . Currently four global agricultural dealers , Cargill and Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market have individually action , they  seems that sugar has promising sign.

In May, Cargill decided to extracted 1.43 million tons of raw sugar maturity from ICE ( Intercontinental Exchange ); while recently Louis Dreyfus also plans to extracted raw sugar 1.49 million tons from ICE. If Louis Dreyfus ultimately successful delivery, this will be the largest physical extraction of raw sugar case in passed  24 years.

In fact , buyer in the agricultural futures markets requesting to extract a large number of goods is not common, because it is easy to suspect to accusations of manipulation of the market price. e.g,  hedge fund Armajaro 2010 extracted 240,000 tons of cocoa from LIFFE exchange, the scale is equivalent to 7% of the world 's cocoa supply , Armajaro obvious motive is sharp . The following year Louis Dreyfus also extract almost all of the ICE stretch cotton maturity , it made Chinese mainland's cotton supply and demand tensions. Therefore, the Board of Trade has the upper limit to set up delivery in order to prevent people from hoarding by extracting a large number of goods to manipulate the market price now.

Recent years, Louis Dreyfus in the sugar market has been playing only a seller role, but this time they are large lots goods potential buyers, the situation is relatively rare , naturally more conspicuous. But this time, even Louis Dreyfus extracts a large number of raw sugar , but if they want to push up the price of sugar, it is almost impossible . Because of the 1.49 million tons of raw sugar is only the scale equivalent to only 0.8% of global production , the total value of approximately $ 570 million , it  far enough to shake the open market price of raw sugar .

From Louis Dreyfus's action, it is probably due to the estimated price of sugar has bottomed out, in the future , raw sugar supply maybe tension in further, it would be better for rainy day hoarding and waiting for an appropriate time "hanging high to sell " to maximize returns. Since large-scale agricultural traders also started deploying sugar price rebound, it is believed that United States Department of Agriculture will not longer subsidize sugar farmers market .

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7159-2013-10-03-01-07-18

囤積居奇 糖市異樣

國際期糖價格連跌兩年，連美國農業部亦要動用公帑入市補貼糖農，避免糖農破產。直至最近終於見期糖市場有異動，過去一個月ICE期糖價格，原來已靜悄悄升近 8%，由每磅約 17 美仙的近年低位，反彈至目前每磅 18 美仙以上。

國際原糖價格自低位反彈，一方面因為全球最大原糖供應國巴西的糖農，嫌糖價太低，紛紛增加對乙醇工業的原糖供應，藉此令原糖市場供應減少以支撐糖價；加上早前巴西氣候不佳，亦影響產量。其次是大型農產品交易商有囤積之嫌。目前全球四大農產品交易商中，Cargill 與 Louis Dreyfus 在期糖市場皆有動作，似乎有睇好糖前景的跡象。

首先，Cargill 在今年 5 月，決定在 ICE（洲際交易所）一口氣提取 143 萬噸的到期原糖；而 Louis Dreyfus 近日亦計劃在 ICE 提取 149 萬噸到期原糖。假如 Louis Dreyfus 最終成功提貨，將會是二十四年來最大宗原糖實貨提取個案。

其實，買家在農產品期貨市場提取大批實貨的情況並不常見，因為很容易被指有操控市場價格的嫌疑。舉例講，2010 年對沖基金 Armajaro 便一口氣在 LIFFE 交易所提取24萬噸可可 (Cocoa)，規模相當於全球 7% 的可可供應，Armajaro 的動機明顯不過。翌年 Louis Dreyfus 亦一口氣在 ICE 提取幾乎全部到期棉花，一度令中國內地的棉花供求出現緊張。因此，期貨交易所現在皆會設定提貨的上限，避免有人藉提取大批實貨囤積以操控市場價格。

Louis Dreyfus 近年在期糖市場，一直只是擔當賣家角色，今次改為大手買貨，而且是實貨，情況比較罕見，自然更加惹人注目。不過，今次 Louis Dreyfus 即使提取大批原糖，但要推高糖價幾乎沒有可能。因為該 149 萬噸原糖，規模只不過相當於全球產量的 0.8%，總價值亦只不過大約 5.7 億美元，遠遠不足以動搖原糖的公開市場價格。

Louis Dreyfus 的動作，相信是由於估計糖價已經見底，在未來日子，原糖供應可能進一步緊張，倒不如未雨綢繆囤積居奇，等待適當時候再「吊高來賣」賺取最大回報。 既然大型農產品交易商亦開始部署糖價反彈，相信美國農業部不用多久便不用再入市補貼糖農。



王冠一財經頻道

The foreign fund favors English stock

The foreign fund favors English stock

27 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Put the eyes into the world, there are only four places where to be truly regarded as the international financial market - Wall Street, New York, where the Abe frequently archery to save the economy, Tokyo Japan, international ATM Hong Kong and the financial center where  Hong Kong investors often ignore, London, UK.

UK National Statistics announced 2012 Britain stock market investor classificationon on Wednesday, it is found that shareholding ratio of foreign investors has exceeded share held by British investors, it means that international investors have been voted a confidence of international status to London financial markets.

It is first time in history that overseas investors hold UK companies shares more than 50% ( 53% non- Britons, Britons 47% ). Recalling the UK stock market history, the stake of foreigners accounted for only 3.6 per cent by the 1980s, up to 31% in 1998, to today's nearly doubled. Of  course, thanks to advances in technology and communications, so that investors break geographical restrictions and fast proficient foreign country financial news. With improving market transparency, as long as profitable, capital nature berthing.

In recent years, multinational M & A activity among numerous , with many overseas companies yearn for London, for example, last year the Russian bank Sberbank raised funds about £ 7.2 billion in the UK Alternative Investment Market (AIM), recently, the U.S. private equity fund Riverstone Holdings's energy investment company also plans listed on the London Stock Exchange and planned to raise £ 1.5 billion. As Overseas companies listed in the UK sotck market increasing, thus, its result is to let London Stock Exchange to made ​​a magnificent publicity and increasing overseas exposure.

North American investors are most active in the UK stock market, accounting for 48 percent last year, the amount of investment is up to £ 451.9B; while Europe accounted for 26 %, the investment amount of more than £ 240B ; Asian funds accounted for 10%. These overseas funds, more than 70% comes from institutional investors, mainly for unit trusts ( 34.4% ), followed by pension funds ( 18% ), banks (7.4%), national governments and sovereign wealth funds about 11%.

In contrast of UK, the proportion of institutional investors in the stock market even have signs of narrowing, but it may cause by balance the risks and pursuit of higher returns activities related. Traditional buyers pension fund's stake from 32% in 1992 and decreased to only 4.7% currently. Another big buyer of the insurance industry accounted for 23.6 percent from 1997, plummeted to 6.2%. Instead, retail stake slight increase ( 10.7% ), became the local largest investor. Accounted for 9.6% of the unit trust (Unit Trust) is second place. Due to the financial crisis, UK government stake Royce (Lloyds), ​​RBS and other banks are about 2.5% share ; banking investment accounted for 1.9%.

In fact, British investors accounted decline does not reflect local investor losing confidence. A large number of overseas companies ( especially in the resources industry ) IPO have come to the London market in recent years, it naturally attracted a large inflow of foreign capital, the proportion of domestic capital only to be diluted only. if there are investors interested in investing in British shares , they are needed to note about British economic data and housing market conditions, moreover, the most important to be concerned that, the U.S. Fed and the Bank of England's monetary policy.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7147-2013-09-27-03-42-58

外資青睞 英國股票

放觀全球，要名副其實稱得上國際金融市場，只有四個地方 ﹣美股所在地紐約、首相頻頻射箭救經濟的日本東京、國際 ATM 香港，以及香港投資者較常忽略的英國金融中心倫敦。

英國國家統計局於周三公布了去年英國股市的投資者分類，發現外國投資者的持股比例，已經超過英國本土投資者所持份額，為倫敦金融市場的國際地位，投下信心一票。

海外投資者持有英國上市公司的股票，歷史上首次超過 50%（非英國人佔 53%，英國人佔 47%）。回顧英國股票市場歷史，外國人的持股比例由 1980 年代僅佔 3.6%，增長至 1998 年的 31%，再到今天的幾近倍增，這當然歸功於科技與通訊的進步，讓投資者打破地域限制，快速通曉彼岸金融消息。隨著市場透明度提高，只要有利可圖，資金自然泊岸。

近年跨國企業間的併購活動多不勝數，加上，不少海外企業對倫敦心嚮往之，包括俄羅斯銀行 Sberbank 去年在英國另類投資市場（AIM）集資 72 億英鎊。近日，美國私募基金 Riverstone Holdings 旗下的能源投資公司亦計劃於倫交所上市，集資 15 億英鎊。於英國上市的海外企業數目日益增加，等於為倫交所作了華麗宣傳，增加海外曝光率。

英國股市的海外投資者中，以北美投資者最為踴躍，佔 48%，去年投資金額高達 4,519 億英鎊；而英國以外的歐洲地區佔 26%，投資金額超過 2,400 億英鎊；亞洲資金則佔 10%。這些海外資金，逾七成來自機構投資者，主要為單位信託基金（佔 34.4%），其次為退休基金（佔 18%）、銀行佔 7.4%，各國政府、主權基金約佔 11%。

反觀英國國內，機構投資者在股市的佔比竟然有縮小的跡象，可能與平衡風險及追求更高回報有關。傳統大買家退休基金的持股比例，由 1992 年 32% 減少至目前僅佔 4.7%。另一大買家保險業則由 1997 年佔 23.6%，急降至 6.2%。反而，散戶的持股比例有些微增幅（佔 10.7%），一躍成為國內最大投資者。佔 9.6% 的單位信託 (Unit Trust) 屈居第二。英國政府則因金融危機時入股萊斯 (Lloyds)、RBS 等銀行，亦有 2.5% 份額；銀行業投資則佔 1.9%。

其實，英國本土投資者佔比下降，並非反映本土投資者失去信心。多家海外大型企業（尤其是資源業）近年紛紛到倫敦上市，自然吸引了大批海外資金流入，本土資金的比重只是被攤薄而已。有興趣投資英股的投資者，比較需要留意英國的經濟數據、樓市狀況，更重要的是美國聯儲局及英倫銀行的貨幣政策走向。



王冠一

VIX Volatility Index rising star

VIX Volatility Index rising star

26 September 2013
(Translation version)
Written by 王冠一 (http://www.wongsir.com.hk)

Although the VIX volatility index has lagged characteristics, we always do not recommend stocks investors who based solely on the VIX Change to decide to invest or to leave away from the stock market. However, VIX volatility index always has its influence to many foreign financial media who will still  use VIX to analyze the U.S. stocks.

VIX (Volatility Index), also known as the fear index. When the index is rising, which represents most investors fear stocks fell ; Conversely, when the index fell, which represents most investors expect stocks to rise.

The principle of calculating VIX actually is very simple, basically it refers to S&P 500 index stocks volatility, it is  indeed reflected in the S&P 500 index associated with short-term options contract price changes - when short-term option contract price rising, which represents more investors purchase S&P 500 options to hedge stocks fell, VIX index will rise ; contrary, when the contract prices fell, which represent investors are reducing to buy the S&P 500 options, VIX index will fall. So there will be an interesting phenomenon : When the VIX index rise, the S&P 500 index fell ; But when the VIX index fell, the S&P 500 index will rise.

If overlap the chart of last year S&P 500 Index and VIX, althrough we can find that the S&P 500 index is upward trend, but last year in February, April, June, August and December, there are total of five significant stocks fell and VIX surged at the same time. time after time, investors found that if VIX surged, they will hastily sell the S&P 500 index futures, in fact, this is not a right investment strategy.

VIX volatility index has been issued by Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) monopoly, although VIX index can not be traded, but it spawned many derivative futures contract business. Last year, VIX futures exchange volumn is up to 23.8M, it is almost twice that of 2011. Recently, the German stock exchange (Deutsche Borse) seems intent to encroach on this market, they via International Securities Exchange, which is owned by them, partnered with index Nation Shares, they newly founded a volatility index called VolDex , there has a ​​clear intention to grab the CBOE business.

Nations Shares criticism, because of the S&P 500 options market illiquidity, sometimes, strange phenomena of VIX futures prices and the VIX index trend divergence happened. VIX index calculated on the basis of traditional illiquid defects, but VolDex calculation is not based on options with  S&P 500 index-linked, but they are associated with SPDR S&P 500 ETF linked, it takes full advantage of the high mobility of ETF options market advantage to calculate volatility index values. However, the use of derivatives with derivatives to estimate the volatility of stocks, that sounds too complicated, I believe the next three to five years, it may not be able to replace the traditional position of VIX.

http://www.wongsir.com.hk/index.php/2008-07-21-20-05-17-sp-1127164607/7143-2013-09-26-03-28-38

波動指數 後起之秀

雖然 VIX 波動指數有滯後的特質，一向不建議美股投資者，單純根據 VIX 的升跌，去決定入市還是離場。不過，VIX 波動指數始終有其江湖地位，不少外國財經媒體依然會用 VIX 來分析美股走勢。

VIX 波動指數 (Volatility Index)，又稱恐慌指數，當指數上升的時候，即代表愈多投資者擔心美股下跌；相反，當指數下跌，即代表愈多投資者預期美股上升。

計算VIX的原理其實好簡單，基本上以標普 500 指數作為美股升跌的參考，指數的升跌，其實是反映與標普 500 指數相關的短期期權 (Short Term Options) 合約價格變化 － 當短期期權合約價格上升，即代表購買標普 500 期權以對沖美股下跌的投資者增加，VIX 指數便上升；相反，當合約價格下跌，即購買標普 500 期權的投資者減少，VIX 指數便下跌。於是會出現有趣的現象：當 VIX 指數上升，標普 500 指數下跌；但當 VIX 指數下跌，標普 500 指數便會上升。

如果把過去一年標普 500 指數與 VIX 重疊，便會發現，雖然標普 500 指數趨勢向上，但去年 12 月、今年 2 月、4 月、6 月、8 月美股共五次較顯著的下跌當中，VIX 當時皆急升。久而久之，投資者以為只要發現 VIX 急升，便急急沽出標普 500指數期貨，其實這種投資策略不太正確。

VIX 波動指數多年來一直由芝加哥期權交易所 (CBOE) 壟斷經營，雖然 VIX 指數本身不能買賣，但就衍生出許多期貨 (Futures) 合約生意。去年 VIX 期貨的轉手量即高達 2,380 萬張，差不多是 2011 年的兩倍。最近，德意志證券交易所 (Deutsche Borse) 似乎有意染指這個市場，透過旗下國際證券交易所 (International Securities Exchange)，夥拍指數公司 Nation Shares，創立一隻叫做 VolDex 的波動指數，擺明有意搶 CBOE 的生意。

Nations Shares 批評，由於標普 500 期權市場流動性不足，所以有時會出現 VIX 期貨價格走勢與 VIX 指數走勢背馳的怪現象。針對傳統 VIX 指數計算基礎流動性不足的缺陷，VolDex 主要計算的期權並非跟標普 500 指數掛鉤，而是跟 SPDR 標普 500 的 ETF 掛鈎，充分利用 ETF 期權市場流動性較高的優勢以計算出波動指數的數值。然而，利用衍生工具的衍生工具，來估計美股的波動情況，聽起來也覺得太複雜，相信未來三至五年亦未必能夠取代 VIX 的傳統地位。



王冠一財經頻道